Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern that could lead to a 54% increase following this year\u2019s US midterm elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n
New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin price and the S&P 500.<\/p>\n
The research <\/a>shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three previously recorded midterm years.\u00a0<\/p>\n Binance\u2019s analysis further reveals that midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&P 500\u2014marking them as the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market\u2019s leading cryptocurrency<\/a> has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average decline of 56% during midterm years.<\/p>\n The research emphasizes what they call \u201cThe Post-Election Opportunity,\u201d as once election results are settled and uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly.\u00a0<\/p>\n The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for potential Bitcoin gains as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its previous all-time highs <\/a>during previous bear market cycles.\u00a0<\/p>\n With Bitcoin\u2019s bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly $58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may already have been reached.\u00a0<\/p>\nIs The End Of The Bear Market Near?<\/h2>\n