Bitcoin is trading near $67,300, well off its recent high of $74,000. One well-known analyst says that dip barely matters \u2014 he\u2019s looking at a cycle average closer to half a million dollars.<\/p>\n
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin\u2019s price during the current 2024\u20132028 halving cycle could average around $500,000<\/a>, with a range stretching from $250,000 to $1 million.<\/p>\n The model is built on a simple premise: as Bitcoin\u2019s supply grows more slowly \u2014 thanks to halving events that cut mining rewards roughly every four years \u2014 and demand holds steady or rises, the price should follow.<\/p>\n Reports indicate that PlanB is careful to frame the figure as a cycle average, not a ceiling or a guaranteed peak.<\/p>\n Bitcoin halvings<\/a> reduce the number of new coins entering circulation. The most recent one took place in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by a significant price run. That pattern is the backbone of PlanB\u2019s argument.<\/p>\n Bitcoin at $67k\u2026 but S2F model screams $500k avg this cycle (2024-2028)! Is BTC massively undervalued & the ultimate buy opportunity? Or is S2F broken forever? What\u2019s your take, bull or bust? pic.twitter.com\/QlBhOgSgGj<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 8, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026 or 2027 \u2014 still a major jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB\u2019s midpoint.<\/p>\n According to Bobby A, Stock-to-Flow works as a rough long-term guide but falls short when used to pin down specific price targets in complex markets.<\/p>\n He argues the model captures Bitcoin\u2019s broad growth story without accounting for the many variables that move prices in real time.<\/p>\n My take is somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently undervalued and will likely trade toward the $200,000 to $250,000 range as this cycle matures through 2026 and into 2027. That said, I do not subscribe to the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028.\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/d8wu0skKuN<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n That skepticism is not without basis. Stock-to-Flow drew sharp criticism after Bitcoin<\/a> failed to sustain the price levels the model projected during the 2020\u20132024 cycle.<\/p>\n Some analysts wrote off the model entirely. Others say it was never meant to work as a precise forecasting tool to begin with \u2014 a nuance that often gets lost in headline-driven coverage.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Weighing On Bitcoin Now<\/p>\n Several outside pressures have contributed to Bitcoin\u2019s recent pullback. Geopolitical tensions<\/a> and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds \u2014 which won US regulatory approval in early 2024 \u2014 have added to short-term volatility.<\/p>\nNot Everyone Is Buying It<\/h2>\n