Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world\u2019s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260.<\/p>\n
Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Amber Data describes <\/a>Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been \u201cde-risked\u201d following October\u2019s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to \u201cunsustainable levels,\u201d the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning.\u00a0<\/p>\n When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning.<\/p>\n While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure <\/a>appears healthier, Amber Data noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade \u2014 once a major driver of activity \u2014 is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data\u2019s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move.<\/p>\n In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges.\u00a0<\/p>\n Under this \u201cmuddle through\u201d scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions<\/a> are repeatedly frustrated.\u00a0<\/p>\n Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8\u201310%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory.<\/p>\n 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000<\/p>\n Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows.\u00a0<\/p>\n Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows <\/a>exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale.<\/p>\n Bear Case Targets $60,000<\/p>\n\u2018Muddle Through\u2019 Phase\u00a0<\/h2>\n