Bitcoin\u2019s on-chain data has flashed a signal that has historically come before prolonged bear market conditions, with the Realized Profit\/Loss Ratio confirming a regime shift toward loss-dominant selling.<\/p>\n
The move suggests that liquidity is evaporating from the market, forcing investors to realize losses rather than book profits, a dynamic last seen during the deepest crypto winter periods of 2018 and 2022.<\/p>\n
According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the 90-day simple moving average of the Realized Profit\/Loss Ratio has officially fallen<\/a> below 1. The metric, which compares the total value of BTC sold at a profit versus those sold at a loss, indicates that loss-taking now outweighs profit-taking across the network.<\/p>\n \u201cThis confirms a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime,\u201d Glassnode analysts noted in a February 24 update on X.<\/p>\n The firm highlighted that historically, breaks below this threshold have persisted for six months or more before reclaiming the 1 level, a recovery that typically signals a \u201cconstructive return of liquidity to the market.\u201d<\/p>\n The reading represents the culmination of a trend that began in early February, when the ratio was hovering near 1.5, and late January, when it stood around 1.32.<\/p>\n Furthermore, the current on-chain structure shows confluence with previous bear market bottoms. CryptoQuant contributor _OnChain observed<\/a> that indicators tied to whale activity, particularly Unspent Profitability Ratios (UPR) for various holder cohorts, have reached levels similar to May-June 2022, a period that preceded significant downside before the ultimate bottom formed later that year.<\/p>\n The current sell-side pressure follows a dramatic cooldown in profit-taking that occurred in December 2025. Glassnode\u2019s earlier data showed that 7-day average realized profits crashed from over $1 billion in Q4 2025 to just $183.8 million by December, which temporarily allowed Bitcoin to stabilize and rally above $96,000 in early January.<\/p>\n However, that stabilization proved short-lived as macroeconomic headwinds intensified, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $63,200 at the time of writing, down 3.6% in 24 hours and almost 29% over the past month. The asset is also nearly 50% below its all-time high reached in October 2025.<\/p>\n Analysts have attributed the continued weakness to a combination of macro factors rather than a structural breakdown in Bitcoin\u2019s fundamentals. U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s recent tariff announcements, including a proposed increase<\/a> on taxes on global imports, have rattled risk assets across traditional and crypto markets.<\/p>\n Despite the bearish signals, some analysts maintain that Bitcoin\u2019s long-term cycle remains intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently framed<\/a> current volatility as a necessary \u201cteenage state\u201d of monetary evolution, arguing that maturing assets must pass through speculative gradients before achieving institutional stability.<\/p>\n However, chartist Ali Martinez warned<\/a> that a three-day \u201cdeath cross\u201d could be confirmed in late February, which foreshadowed final downside moves in 2014, 2018, and 2022, historically leading to additional declines of 30% to 50%.<\/p>\n The post Glassnode: Bitcoin Realized Losses Have Hit Bear Market Levels<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin\u2019s on-chain data has flashed a signal that has historically come before prolonged bear market conditions, with the Realized Profit\/Loss Ratio confirming a regime shift toward loss-dominant selling. The move suggests that liquidity is evaporating from the market, forcing investors to realize losses rather than book profits, a dynamic last seen during the deepest crypto […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":137665,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-137664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137664"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=137664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137664\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/137665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=137664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=137664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=137664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Market Context and Historical Parallels<\/h2>\n