{"id":13648,"date":"2024-10-14T09:35:14","date_gmt":"2024-10-14T09:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=13648"},"modified":"2024-10-14T09:35:14","modified_gmt":"2024-10-14T09:35:14","slug":"svet-markets-weekly-update-october-7-11-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=13648","title":{"rendered":"SVET Markets Weekly Update (October 7\u201311, 2024)"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Week 41<\/strong>, stocks reached new highs as investors reacted to inflation data. Oil prices climbed due to Middle East tensions. The dollar strengthened, while the Euro weakened. Crypto followed stocks, with BTC rising but ETH remaining relatively stable.<\/p>\n

On Monday<\/strong>, equities tumbled as investors now assign a 95% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November. Globally, crude oil climbed to a six-week high, while steel prices reached their highest level in three months, as the dollar remained elevated due to the rising threat of global conflicts. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH stayed unchanged from their post-drop levels of approximately $62K and $2.4K amid a lack of corporate investor interest driven by political uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Details<\/em><\/p>\n

Consumer credit increased by $8.93B in August, following an upwardly revised $26.63B jump in the prior month, and below market expectations<\/em> of a $12 billion rise. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1 percent. 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(Fed)<\/a><\/p>\n

Crypto<\/em><\/p>\n

Elon Musk believes Polymarket could more accurately predict the presidential election than traditional polling. He recently gave a speech supporting Trump, who is leading Harris (51 to 48)<\/em> in the polls according to Polymarket. (source)<\/a><\/p>\n

World Markets<\/em><\/p>\n

Retail Sales in the Euro Area increased<\/em> 0.80 percent in August MoM. 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(EC)<\/a><\/p>\n

Currencies<\/em><\/p>\n

The dollar index held around 102.5 after surging half a percent in the previous session following a stronger-than-expected jobs report (254K vs. 140K expected), while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Markets now see around a 95% chance of a more modest 25 bps rate cut in November<\/em>. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cSide<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/em><\/p>\n

WTI crude oil futures climbed to $77.1 per barrel, a six-week high<\/em>, as tensions in the Middle East escalate. Investors are focused on whether Israel will respond to last week\u2019s Iranian missile attack. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cSide<\/strong>\u201dSteel rebar futures surged 7% to CNY 3,420 per tonne in the last session of September, the highest in three months<\/em>, amid an improved construction input outlook after key Chinese cities relaxed home-buying curbs. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cSide<\/strong>\u201dComment: Macro&Crypto<\/em>Macro:<\/em>In the long term, service-side inflation, which had initially cooled down until May and June\u200a\u2014\u200aalongside commodity-side inflation that decreased due to adjustments in supply chains following post-enclosure and downward pressure from the Fed and other central banks\u200a\u2014\u200ahas begun to re-accelerate. This resurgence is largely attributed to high employment levels, driven in part by political factors and increasing societal pressure on both politicians and corporations.Simultaneously, the markets, which consistently reached all-time highs over the past year, are now starting to decelerate. The media narrative has also shifted; it has transitioned from discussions of \u201cstagnation, which we will avoid due to Fed easing\u201d to more recent commentary asserting that \u201cthe Fed was too early to declare a victory parade.\u201d This indicates that we may be entering a period of stagflation, which is likely to last until major geopolitical conflicts are resolved (at least partially) and we re-enter the time of open (might be \u201csemi-opened\u201d) and low-tariffs markets. However, as it looks at the moment, it may take decades for all these geopolitical issues to be sorted\u00a0out.Therefore, we are facing an extended period of slow transition toward a stagflation regime globally. During this time, the Fed and other financial regulators may be compelled to alternate between periods of quantitative easing and tightening. In an inflationary environment (stagflation = inflation + stagnation), where markets are flooded with liquidity, stock prices may rise, but this growth is expected to be highly volatile. Investors will find themselves caught between disappointing corporate earnings reports\u200a\u2014\u200adue to shrinking market shares for most companies\u200a\u2014\u200aand rising profits for a select few large corporations that leverage their scale to maintain higher rate of growth and lower\u00a0prices.Crypto:<\/em>As for cryptocurrency markets, they are also positioned for growth. Investors in developing countries may seek refuge from inflation, while corporate investors are likely to park excess cash in cryptocurrencies.We still anticipate that the Nasdaq will decline to the range of 15,000 to 16,000 at some point over the next year, followed by a recovery fueled by government stimulus. Regarding BTC, a correction to $50K may accompany the Nasdaq\u2019s drop or be triggered by political factors, such as a DEM victory in the elections. However, inflationary pressures are likely to drive BTC prices up again, potentially reaching new highs within the next 2\u20133\u00a0years.As for other cryptocurrencies, their pricing is heavily influenced by political factors, with 80\u201390% of their trading volume originating from the USA. The continuation of a DEM government could pose significant challenges for many local crypto companies.We remain cautiously optimistic about ETH, expecting it to rise to $5K to $8K within the next 2\u20133 years, as well as SOL, which we believe could increase by 2\u20133 times during the same period. Aside from BTC, we suggest maintaining a portfolio allocation of 20% in SOL and ETH and 80% in cash over the next 4\u20136 months. This strategy will allow us to assess the political landscape before starting to accumulate assets\u00a0again.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday<\/strong>, equities are up; nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ended higher, led by technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary. Oil dropped on risks-overestimates, as rubber reached a 7-year high on China stimulus and uranium rose to its highest in a month on expected supply cuts. BTC and ETH lingered at week\u2019s old levels of $62K and\u00a0$2.4K.<\/p>\n

Details<\/em><\/p>\n

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased<\/em> to 91.5 in September from 91.2 in August, missing forecasts of 91.7. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down five points from August. 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(Nfib)<\/a>The RealClearMarkets\/TIPP Economic Optimism Index increased by 0.8 points to 46.9 in October 2024, the highest since April 2023<\/em>. Sentiment has been on the rise for four consecutive months, though it remains entrenched in negative territory. The Personal Financial Outlook increased by 0.4 points to 53.6 this month. 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(Tech)<\/a><\/p>\n

Crypto<\/em><\/p>\n

Solana leads Q3 2024 in bridged net inflows. Ethereum retains market dominance but underperforms<\/em>. Aptos challenges Solana with GameFi.\u00a0(source)<\/a><\/p>\n

World Markets<\/em><\/p>\n

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points<\/em> to 4.75% during its October 2024 policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut and aligning with market expectations. New Zealand\u2019s annual inflation rate eased to 3.3% in Q2 2024, from 4% in the previous quarter and below market expectations of 3.5%. 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(Rbnz)<\/a>Industrial production in Argentina fell by 6.9% YoY in August, marking the fifteenth<\/em> consecutive month of contraction. 1Y trend: \u201cDown<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(Indec)<\/a><\/p>\n

Commodities<\/em><\/p>\n

WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.6% to $73.5 per barrel on Tuesday, as anticipated supply disruptions stemming from geopolitical risks in the Middle East have not yet materialized<\/em>. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cSide<\/strong>\u201dUranium rose to $82 per pound in October, the highest in over a month<\/em>, as risks to supply coincided with robust power demand for major nuclear energy producers. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cUp<\/strong>\u201dRubber futures traded around 210 cents per kg, holding close to a recent over 7\u20131\/2-year high<\/em> of 214 US cents per kg, on the back of China\u2019s massive stimulus<\/em> measures. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

On Wednesday<\/strong>, stocks hit new records as investors react to Fed minutes and inflation data. Tech giants lead market higher, offsetting concerns over Alphabet\u2019s potential divestiture. Dollar index increased to 8-day high as traders predict smaller rate cut. BTC and ETH dropped briefly but returned to $63K and\u00a0$2.4K.<\/p>\n

Details<\/em><\/p>\n

Mortgage rates rise to 6.36%, highest since August<\/em>, as Treasury yields increase, reflecting investor belief that the Fed won\u2019t lower interest rates as swiftly. Jumbo loan rates climb to 6.64% and FHA-backed mortgage rates rise to 6.22%. 1Y trend: \u201cDown<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(MBA)<\/a><\/p>\n

World Markets<\/em><\/p>\n

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark policy repo rate at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting<\/em> in October 2024, aligning with market expectations but tweaked its policy stance to neutral, opening the door for rate cuts amid early signs of a growth slowdown in the economy. 1Y trend: \u201cSide<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(RBI)<\/a><\/p>\n

Currencies<\/em><\/p>\n

Dollar index surges to 8-session high<\/em> as traders predict smaller 25bps Fed rate cut. Policymakers divided on rate cut size, reinforcing Fed\u2019s view on economic outlook. Traders await CPI and PPI data. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cSide<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

On Thursday<\/strong>, stocks ended mixed after a higher-than-expected core inflation report increased uncertainty over the Fed\u2019s rate decision. Fed remains divided on rate cuts as initial jobless claims reached a 14-month high. Oil and the dollar are in their second week of rallying amid worsening geopolitics. BTC dipped below $60K, while ETH continues to linger around\u00a0$2.4K.<\/p>\n

Details<\/em><\/p>\n

Unemployment claims rise to 258K, highest in 14 months<\/em>, driven by Michigan and hurricane-affected states. 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d Annual inflation slows to 2.4% in September, lowest since February 2021<\/em>, but above forecasts. Core inflation unexpectedly rises to 3.3%. Core inflation rate rises to 3.3% in September, beating expectations, driven by services and shelter costs.<\/em> 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d (BLS)<\/a> and\u00a0(DOL)<\/a><\/p>\n

Crypto<\/em><\/p>\n

Spot ETH ETFs have struggled to match the demand seen in spot bitcoin ETFs. Factors such as the absence of staking yield and the complex marketing<\/em> of ETH hinder investor interest. While BTC ETFs garnered nearly $19B in inflows over ten months, ether ETFs, launched in July, have faced $556M in net outflows. Additionally, weak ETH price performance and unattractive valuations compared to other assets further dampen demand, making it challenging for these ETFs to capture investor enthusiasm. (source)<\/a><\/p>\n

World Markets<\/em><\/p>\n

In September, Argentina\u2019s consumer prices rose by 3.5% MoM, the lowest since November 2021<\/em>, after a 4.2% increase in August. This slowdown was seen in food, transportation, communication, education, health, and hospitality costs. However, prices for housing, utilities, clothing, and footwear increased. YoY, prices surged by 209%, marking the fifth month of disinflation<\/em> and a decrease from 236.7% in August, aligning with market expectations. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cDown<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

Currencies<\/em><\/p>\n

The dollar index remained around 102.9, poised for its second consecutive weekly gain<\/em> as recent economic data and central bank cues influenced traders\u2019 expectations regarding Fed interest rate cuts. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cSide<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/em><\/p>\n

WTI crude oil futures hovered around $75.5 per barrel, set for a second weekly gain<\/em> amid rising supply disruption risks. Israel\u2019s security cabinet discussed possible responses to Iran\u2019s missile attack, raising market tensions over potential retaliatory actions against Iran\u2019s oil sector. Additionally, Hurricane Milton caused significant fuel shortages and power outages in Florida. Demand prospects improved as China announced a draft law to encourage private sector growth. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cDown<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

On Friday<\/strong>, equities rallied, driven by strong bank earnings and a positive economic outlook. Meanwhile, producers\u2019 (PPI) inflation remained unchanged as consumer price index (CPI) rose, creating uncertainty about Fed rate cuts. The dollar reached a 2-month high as Indian industrial production declined for the first time since 2022. Crypto traders followed stocks, with BTC jumping to 64K but ETH remaining around\u00a02.4K.<\/p>\n

Details<\/em><\/p>\n

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 68.9 in October, lower than expectations<\/em>, with current conditions and expectations both weakening. Inflation expectations rose slightly for the year ahead but eased for the five-year outlook. 1Y trend: \u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(SCA)<\/a>Factory gate prices (PPI) held steady in September, below expectations<\/em>, while service prices rose. Annual producer price inflation eased to 1.8%, with core inflation increasing to 2.8%, exceeding forecasts. 1Y trend: \u201cDown<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(BLS)<\/a><\/p>\n

Crypto<\/em><\/p>\n

Liberland, a micronation seeking recognition between Croatia and Serbia, operates under a unique on-chain governance system. Newly appointed Prime Minister Justin Sun aims to establish it as the \u201cfreest nation,\u201d boosting interest and causing the Liberland Dollar to surge over 200%.\u00a0(source)<\/a><\/p>\n

World Markets<\/em><\/p>\n

India\u2019s industrial production fell by 0.1% YoY in August 2024, marking its first decline since October 2022<\/em>, primarily due to a 4.3% drop in mining and a 3.7% reduction in electricity output. 1Y trend: \u201cSide<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(MOSPI)<\/a>The Bank of Korea cut its base rate to 3.25%, the first time in nearly two years<\/em>, due to easing inflation and weakening economic output. Inflation is projected below 2% this year, with GDP growth expected at 2.4% in 2024. 1Y trend: \u201cSide<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0(BoK)<\/a><\/p>\n

Currencies<\/em><\/p>\n

The Euro weakened to 2-month low<\/em> (around $1.09), influenced by dollar strength and expectations of slow Fed rate cuts. The ECB is anticipated to lower rates further, while Eurozone inflation fell to 1.8%, the lowest since April 2021. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cUp<\/strong>\u201dThe dollar index approached 103, its highest in nearly two months<\/em>, amid economic data suggesting persistent inflation. Producer prices stagnated, but core inflation exceeded expectations, prompting Atlanta Fed President Bostic to consider maintaining rates in November. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cSide<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/em><\/p>\n

Gold rose<\/em> above $2,640 per ounce as traders reacted to mixed economic data, suggesting the Fed may slow rate cuts. Jobless claims raised concerns about the labor market, while producer inflation data is anticipated for further insights. 1Y trend:\u00a0\u201cUp<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

On Week 42<\/strong>, focus will be on the retail sales report, Fed speeches, and earnings season. In Europe, the ECB\u2019s interest rate decision and Germany\u2019s ZEW Economic Sentiment index are key. The UK will release unemployment rate, inflation figures, and retail sales. China will reveal its Q3 GDP growth rate and other data. Inflation data will also be released for India, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and South\u00a0Africa.<\/p>\n

Evernomics\u200a\u2014\u200aDigital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform\u200a\u2014\u200ais your way to invest into your bright future without\u00a0hassle.<\/h3>\n

For more on SVET Value: <\/strong>https:\/\/evernomics.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

SVET Markets Weekly Update (October 7\u201311, 2024)<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On Week 41, stocks reached new highs as investors reacted to inflation data. Oil prices climbed due to Middle East tensions. The dollar strengthened, while the Euro weakened. Crypto followed stocks, with BTC rising but ETH remaining relatively stable. On Monday, equities tumbled as investors now assign a 95% chance of a 25 basis point […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13648"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13648\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}