XRP is flashing a familiar on-chain stress pattern after slipping below its aggregate holder cost basis, a move Glassnode says has historically coincided with capitulation, loss realization, and a slow grind toward stabilization rather than an immediate rebound.<\/p>\n
In a Feb. 9 post<\/a> on X, the on-chain analytics firm said XRP \u201clost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling,\u201d pointing to a sharp deterioration in spent output profitability. Glassnode flagged its Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) on a 7-day EMA basis falling from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 \u201cnow,\u201d adding that \u201cholders are realizing significant losses\u201d and that \u201con-chain profitability flipped negative.\u201d<\/p>\n SOPR prints below 1 are typically read as the market spending coins at a loss on aggregate, a regime that can persist when sellers are forced to exit and bids are primarily coming from buyers with longer horizons. In Glassnode\u2019s framing, that\u2019s what makes the current setup rhyme with a prior XRP cycle: \u201cThis setup closely resembles the Sep 2021\u2013May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.\u201d<\/p>\n The Feb. 9 warning isn\u2019t an isolated call. On Feb. 1, Glassnode wrote that \u201cThe XRP Realized Price<\/a> is trading at $1.48,\u201d adding that \u201cThe current market structure is very similar to that of April 2022.\u201d Weeks earlier, on Jan. 19, the firm again pointed to a 2022 echo<\/a>, saying XRP\u2019s structure \u201cclosely resembles that of February 2022,\u201d and describing a cohort tension where newer buyers are accumulating below the cost basis of longer-held supply. Some market participants treated the sub-1 SOPR regime less as a red flag and more as a process of transferring supply from weaker hands to stronger ones. One reply, from the account @investorie, framed it explicitly as a bottom-building signal:<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a classic capitulation signal, not a structural failure. SOPR below 1 means weak hands are exiting at a loss. That pressure gets absorbed, and historically it\u2019s how durable bases form, not how long-term trends end.\u201d<\/p>\n Another respondent, 0xsimba, drew a parallel to Bitcoin\u2019s forced-selling episodes while echoing Glassnode\u2019s historical comparison: \u201cWhen SOPR drops below 1 for extended period, pain transferring from weak to strong hands. Sep 2021\u2013May 2022 precedent, Prolonged consolidation then recovery. Setup is forming. Signal needs confirmation.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nGlassnode\u2019s Jan. 19 post also emphasized the behavioral side of that structure: as the pattern persists, \u201cpsychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time.\u201d<\/p>\nXRP Capitulation Or Breakdown Next?<\/h2>\n