{"id":133689,"date":"2026-02-09T11:46:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T11:46:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=133689"},"modified":"2026-02-09T11:46:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T11:46:48","slug":"usd-eur-and-yield-expectations-in-mid-q1-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=133689","title":{"rendered":"USD, EUR and Yield Expectations in Mid-Q1 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83d\udcb5 <strong>USD snapshot:<\/strong> The US dollar index (DXY) is sitting in the <strong>97.5\u201397.7<\/strong> area, staying reactive to every shift in \u201cwhen is the next Fed cut?\u201d pricing and to global risk appetite.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>US yields\u200a\u2014\u200athe market\u2019s expectations gauge:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>US 10Y:<\/strong> about\u00a0<strong>4.23%<\/strong><strong>US 2Y:<\/strong> about <strong>3.52%<\/strong><br \/> That leaves the curve <strong>positively sloped<\/strong> (roughly <strong>0.7%<\/strong> between 10Y and 2Y). A steeper curve often signals that markets see the Fed staying cautious near-term, while longer-term expectations lean toward easier policy\u00a0later.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfe6 <strong>Fed timing\u200a\u2014\u200awhat traders are pricing:<\/strong> The base case in rates markets remains that the Fed <strong>is likely to stay on hold in March<\/strong>, with the next cut <strong>most commonly priced around June<\/strong> if upcoming data\u00a0cools.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcb6 <strong>EUR and the ECB angle:<\/strong> The ECB\u2019s <strong>deposit facility rate is 2.00%<\/strong> (unchanged at the latest decision). With both the Fed and ECB in a \u201cwait and reassess\u201d mode, <strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong> is behaving like a relative-rates and risk-sentiment pair: it tends to firm when USD easing expectations rise, and soften when the market swings back to USD safety\u00a0demand.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udc40 <strong>What could move everything next (mid-Q1 focus):<\/strong><br \/> \ud83e\uddfe US inflation prints and wages<br \/> \ud83d\udc77 US labour market updates<br \/> \ud83d\udecd\ufe0f Consumption data and confidence<br \/> Any surprise here can reprice June expectations quickly, which usually hits <strong>USD first<\/strong>, then <strong>Treasury yields<\/strong>, then\u00a0<strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfaf Want to trade the next USD and EUR move with macro catalysts? Open an account here: <a href=\"https:\/\/my.nordfx.com\/en\/registration?utm_source=social&amp;utm_medium=post&amp;utm_campaign=nordfx\">https:\/\/my.nordfx.com\/en\/registration?utm_source=social&amp;utm_medium=post&amp;utm_campaign=nordfx<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/coinmonks\/usd-eur-and-yield-expectations-in-mid-q1-2026-e8018afae7c1\">\ud83c\udf0d USD, EUR and Yield Expectations in Mid-Q1 2026<\/a> was originally published in <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/coinmonks\">Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83d\udcb5 USD snapshot: The US dollar index (DXY) is sitting in the 97.5\u201397.7 area, staying reactive to every shift in \u201cwhen is the next Fed cut?\u201d pricing and to global risk appetite. \ud83d\udcc8 US yields\u200a\u2014\u200athe market\u2019s expectations gauge: US 10Y: about\u00a04.23%US 2Y: about 3.52% That leaves the curve positively sloped (roughly 0.7% between 10Y and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":133690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-133689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133689"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=133689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/133690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=133689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=133689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=133689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}