PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, says bitcoin\u2019s drawdown has left markets staring at four plausible bear-market paths, ranging from a classic 80% drawdown to the possibility that the lows are already in.<\/p>\n
In a post on X and a follow-up video dated Feb. 4, PlanB framed the debate around where bitcoin typically finds bear-market bottoms relative to long-term trend metrics, while also arguing that the previous rally\u2019s lack of momentum could translate into a shallower reset this time.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin closed January at $78,000, he said, marking a roughly 40% decline from the cycle\u2019s all-time high at $126,000. On his chart, the 200-week moving average closed at $58,000 and realized price at $55,000, with the January RSI ending at 49, a level he treats as a regime shift.<\/p>\n
\u201cRSI here, 49. RSI, as you know, is an index between 0 and 100. And everything above 50 is an uptrend. Everything below 50 is downtrend,\u201d PlanB said. \u201cSo 49 is below 50, it\u2019s downtrend. It\u2019s a bear market\u2026 similar to 2014\u201315, 2018\u201319 and 2022\u201323.\u201d<\/p>\n
From there, he outlined four scenarios for how the drawdown could evolve. The first is the historical \u201cworst case\u201d that still sits in traders\u2019 mental models: an 80% drop from the top. With an ATH of $126,000, PlanB said that would imply a move to roughly $25,000 \u2014 \u201csomewhere here between these two lines\u201d on his chart, even if he acknowledged it would \u201clook really really odd.\u201d<\/p>\n
The second scenario is more conventional by his own backtests: a bottom around the 200-week moving average and realized price<\/a>, which he pegged in the $50,000\u2013$60,000 level. PlanB pointed to prior cycles where price eventually \u201cdrop[s] to the moving average realized price levels,\u201d highlighting 2022 and 2015 as examples where the RSI trough coincided with those long-term anchors.<\/p>\n The third scenario is shallower still: a retrace that stops just above the prior cycle\u2019s all-time high, around $69,000\u2013$70,000. PlanB\u2019s reasoning is that the preceding bull phase looked muted in his indicators, which could compress the magnitude of the bear.<\/p>\n \u201cSo what I think is\u2026 because the bull market<\/a> was very weak\u2026 it didn\u2019t have the red dots, the high RSI peaks,\u201d he said. \u201cBecause of that, the bear market could be very shallow. And that would mean, for example, going back to the level or just be above the level of the\u2026 previous all-time high, which was 69,000.\u201d<\/p>\n The fourth scenario is the one traders always want on their screens: that the market already printed its low. PlanB wrote that \u201cyesterday\u2019s $72.9k was the bottom,\u201d and reiterated in the video that \u201cmaybe the $72.800 that we saw a couple days ago was already the bottom.\u201d Notably, the BTC price already dropped to $70,140 on Wednesday, invalidating this scenario.<\/p>\n IMO there are 4 bitcoin bear market scenarios: I discuss these scenario\u2019s in my new video: \u2014 PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 4, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n
\n1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k
\n2) down to 200w MA \/ realized price => $50k-60k
\n3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k
\n4) yesterday\u2019s $72.9k was the bottom<\/p>\n
\n https:\/\/t.co\/mXSxJK9LLx<\/a><\/p>\n