{"id":132256,"date":"2026-02-04T04:00:05","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T04:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=132256"},"modified":"2026-02-04T04:00:05","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T04:00:05","slug":"bitcoin-unrealized-losses-reach-22-still-no-capitulation-phase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=132256","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% \u2013 Still No Capitulation Phase"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after several days of sustained selling pressure and heightened market uncertainty. Price action remains fragile, with each rebound attempt failing to attract strong follow-through, reinforcing concerns that the market is still digesting a broader structural shift rather than a short-term correction. According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin entered a bear cycle in October 2025 and is now moving through a correction phase following the local peak near $125,000.<\/p>\n

On-chain data<\/a> supports this interpretation. Two key indicators \u2014 Percent Unrealised Loss and the LTH\/STH SOPR Ratio \u2014 point to mounting stress across the holder base, but without the hallmarks of full capitulation. Unrealised losses have risen sharply, tripling since January from roughly 7% to around 22% as prices declined from $95,000 to near $78,000.<\/p>\n

While this increase signals growing discomfort among investors, it remains well below the 40\u201360% levels historically associated with deep bear-market capitulation in 2019 and 2023.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the LTH\/STH SOPR Ratio has dropped around 40% from its peaks, indicating compressed profitability and reduced willingness to sell at a loss, particularly among longer-term holders. Together, these signals suggest Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle stress phase: pressure is building, confidence is weakening, but widespread forced selling has not yet emerged.<\/p>\n

Profit Compression Without Capitulation Signals<\/h2>\n

Adler also highlights the behavior of the Bitcoin LTH\/STH SOPR Ratio<\/a> as a critical lens for understanding the current market phase. This metric compares the profitability of coins being spent by long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH), offering insight into who is absorbing losses and who is still distributing coins at a profit. High readings indicate that long-term holders are realizing profits far more efficiently than short-term participants, while lower values imply growing loss realization among newer entrants.<\/p>\n

Since peaking near 1.85 in October, the LTH\/STH SOPR Ratio has fallen to around 1.13, representing a decline of roughly 40%. This sharp compression reflects a clear deterioration in profitability across the market. However, the indicator remains above the critical 1.0 threshold. Historically, sustained moves below 1.0 have marked periods where short-term holders capitulate en masse, selling at significant losses. Deeper drops into the 0.6\u20130.8 range coincided with full capitulation and cycle lows in 2015, 2019, and 2023.<\/p>\n

At the current level, profit margins are tightening for both cohorts, but long-term holders are still, on average, exiting positions above cost. Adler notes that a decisive break below 1.0 would signal a transition into true capitulation, while a recovery toward 1.3\u20131.4 would indicate renewed confidence. Taken together with rising unrealised losses, the data points to a mid-cycle stress phase rather than a terminal bear-market bottom.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Stabilizes After Sharp Sell-Off<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin price action on the 12-hour chart reflects a market still under structural pressure. Despite a short-term stabilization attempt around the $78,000 zone. After an aggressive sell-off from the mid-$90,000s, BTC broke decisively below multiple key moving averages. This confirms a broader bearish regime rather than a simple pullback. The sharp downside impulse was accompanied by a notable spike in volume. Signaling forced selling and liquidation-driven flows rather than orderly profit-taking.<\/p>\n

Since tagging the local low near $78,000, the price has attempted a modest rebound. However, this bounce remains technically weak. Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term and medium-term moving averages. Which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Previous support in the $88,000\u2013$90,000 region has clearly flipped into a supply zone. Capping upside attempts and reinforcing the idea of a range forming beneath a broken structure.<\/p>\n

The current consolidation appears more consistent with a relief pause than a trend reversal. Momentum has slowed, but there is no evidence yet of sustained bid absorption or higher-timeframe demand stepping in.<\/p>\n

As long as BTC remains below the descending moving averages, downside risks persist. The price is vulnerable to renewed tests of the recent lows. Reclaiming and holding above the $82,000\u2013$85,000 area would be required to signal a meaningful shift in short-term structure.<\/p>\n

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after several days of sustained selling pressure and heightened market uncertainty. Price action remains fragile, with each rebound attempt failing to attract strong follow-through, reinforcing concerns that the market is still digesting a broader structural shift rather than a short-term correction. According to top analyst Axel Adler, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":132257,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-132256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132256"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=132256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132256\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/132257"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=132256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=132256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=132256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}