Bitcoin\u2019s latest drawdown is being framed less as a technical breakdown and more as a liquidity problem, with Ki Young Ju arguing that the key inputs that sustained the rally fresh capital inflows have stalled. In that setup, he says, calls for a full-cycle, -70% style capitulation hinge on a single variable: whether Strategy turns from buyer to meaningful seller.<\/p>\n
In a Feb. 1 post<\/a>, Ki said \u201cBitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in.\u201d He pointed to a flatlining Realized Cap as evidence that incremental money is no longer entering the market, and tied that directly to market structure. \u201cRealized Cap<\/a>\u201d has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital. When market cap falls in that environment, it\u2019s not a bull market.\u201d<\/p>\n His read is that the profit-taking has been there for a while, it was simply absorbed. Early holders, he wrote, were \u201csitting on big unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR buying<\/a>,\u201d and \u201chave been taking profits since early last year, but strong inflows kept Bitcoin near 100K.\u201d The change now, in his telling, is that the bid that mattered most has faded: \u201cNow those inflows have dried up.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s where the crash math changes. Ki described Strategy (MSTR) as \u201ca major driver of this rally,\u201d but argued the reflexive downside seen in prior cycles is unlikely without a decisive reversal from the company\u2019s balance sheet strategy. \u201cUnless Saylor significantly dumps<\/a> his stack, we won\u2019t see a -70% crash like previous cycles,\u201d he wrote, carving out an explicit condition rather than presenting the drawdown as inevitable.<\/p>\n Even so, he didn\u2019t claim the market has found a floor. \u201cSelling pressure is still ongoing, so the bottom isn\u2019t clear yet,\u201d Ki said, adding that the more probable path is time, not a straight-line liquidation. His base case is \u201ca wide-ranging sideways consolidation,\u201d a regime where volatility can persist but direction becomes harder to sustain without new marginal buyers.<\/p>\nStablecoin Liquidity Dries Up<\/h2>\n