{"id":13114,"date":"2024-10-11T08:00:35","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T08:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=13114"},"modified":"2024-10-11T08:00:35","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T08:00:35","slug":"is-the-bitcoin-bull-run-over-top-analyst-predicts-whats-next-for-crypto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=13114","title":{"rendered":"Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Top Analyst Predicts What\u2019s Next For Crypto"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crypto analyst Bob Loukas has released a new video analysis<\/a> titled \u201cNo Bull.\u201d In the video, Loukas delves into the current state of the Bitcoin market, addressing growing concerns about the possibility of a canceled bull run.<\/p>\n

Loukas begins by acknowledging the prolonged period of consolidation for the Bitcoin price. He senses that \u201cthere is now some fear creeping into the market,\u201d partly due to factors such as the Bitcoin ETF being \u201cout for quite some time\u201d and the halving having \u201ccome and go,\u201d without leading to significant upward price movement.<\/p>\n

Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over?<\/h2>\n

Loukas observes that while traditional markets are performing robustly\u2014with \u201cthe stock market making all-time highs seemingly every week\u201d and \u201ceven gold making big all-time highs\u201d\u2014Bitcoin continues to \u201clanguish,\u201d and altcoins are \u201cpretty much dying a slow death.\u201d He notes that \u201cthe only thing out there that\u2019s really working is the really speculative memecoins<\/a>,\u201d contributing to negative sentiment in the crypto space.<\/p>\n

However, he considers this development to be \u201ckind of normal,\u201d emphasizing that despite these challenges, Bitcoin remains \u201cclose to the all-time highs from the prior cycle.\u201d Discussing the eight months of consolidation in Bitcoin\u2019s price, Loukas interprets this period as a bullish sign. \u201cEight months of consolidation is actually pretty bullish if the timing is right in the four-year cycle. Sentiment is right, it\u2019s been reset; fundamentals, macro, I think they all look right,\u201d he states.<\/p>\n

Loukas further highlights that the market is \u201c23 months in\u201d since the lows of the last cycle in November 2022, \u201cjust shy of a 24-month or 2-year anniversary of this cycle,\u201d which is due to conclude around November-December 2026. He acknowledges the \u201cquite a bit of fear that\u2019s sort of crept into this market\u201d following a \u201cvery bullish, very frothy period\u201d from the ETF approval<\/a> leak in September-October 2023 up to the peak in March 2024.<\/p>\n

One of the main fears, according to Loukas, is that Bitcoin made its last all-time high seven months ago in March, and since then, \u201cwe\u2019ve been forming these lower highs on the monthly and also to some extent a lower low structure.\u201d This has created anxiety among investors who \u201centered the market way too late, waiting for confirmation,\u201d only to find themselves \u201clocked out when the market went on this five straight months move,\u201d without providing an opportunity to buy during a dip.<\/p>\n

He points out that many investors have \u201crolled into a bunch of altcoins in this later period that are now down 50, 60, 70%,\u201d leading to a situation where, despite Bitcoin being \u201cstill up around 3x off the lows,\u201d a lot of people feel they haven\u2019t \u201cextracted any sort of value out of this cycle\u201d or have even \u201clost money over this period.\u201d Loukas considers this scenario to be \u201cquite normal from a cycle structure perspective.\u201d<\/p>\n

He emphasizes that during this bullish phase, the market didn\u2019t experience a \u201ctypical 30% decline at any given point,\u201d with the \u201cbiggest declines\u201d being \u201cmostly time-based and were only around about 20% from peak to trough before making a new high.\u201d This atypical behavior \u201cthrew a lot of people off\u201d and \u201cmade it difficult for people to get in,\u201d as they were \u201clooking to buy on a dip which never really eventuated.\u201d<\/p>\n

Loukas suggests that the current consolidation is a necessary phase to \u201ccompletely reset sentiment in order to prepare for the next phase of this four-year cycle.\u201d He finds it significant that Bitcoin is \u201csitting here 23 months, just around 20% or so off the all-time highs of the last four-year cycle high back in 2021,\u201d which makes it feel \u201cmore primed for the next phase of the four-year cycle than anything else.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also draws parallels with previous cycles, noting that from the cycle low in December 2018 to the first point where Bitcoin made a new high, \u201cit took 23 months to get to the price four-year cycle high to exceed that.\u201d Similar patterns were observed in earlier cycles, with timeframes of \u201caround 25 months\u201d and \u201caround 22 months\u201d to reach new all-time highs. In contrast, the current cycle achieved this milestone \u201cin just 16 months, much sooner,\u201d which he attributes largely to the ETF news that \u201cforced buyers in earlier in the cycle than normal.\u201d<\/p>\n

Loukas believes that this accelerated timeline has created a dynamic where \u201cwe now have to rotate a lot of coins,\u201d allowing \u201ca lot of whales, a lot of old-timers\u201d to \u201cunlock\u201d and \u201cexit and rotate,\u201d while \u201cinstitutional players, larger account players have been accumulating those coins in this period.\u201d He views this as \u201ca matter of time more than anything else,\u201d interpreting the current period as a process where the market \u201cends up erasing all that bullish sentiment\u201d from the previous phase, thus allowing \u201ca complete separation from one phase of the cycle to this phase of the cycle\u201d\u2014essentially a \u201cmid-cycle decline.\u201d<\/p>\n

When Will BTC Price Break Out?<\/h2>\n

Overall, Loukas remains largely optimistic: \u201cSo far in this four-year cycle<\/a>, I see nothing that has changed that trajectory, nothing in the profile or the structure that tells me that this cycle is any different to the last cycles.\u201d<\/p>\n

He cites several factors supporting his bullish outlook, including \u201cmassive inflows into Bitcoin, mostly institutional players,\u201d and the absorption of large sell-offs by entities like \u201cthe German government<\/a>\u201d and \u201cthe US government<\/a>,\u201d which have not significantly impacted the price. Loukas emphasizes that \u201cprice is down only 20%; it\u2019s held up well.\u201d He also mentions that \u201cthe ETF is still there; it\u2019s going to be pushed through the independent advisor channels,\u201d and \u201cthe timing is there; the macro, the fundamentals are there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Loukas is particularly excited about the cyclical patterns, noting that \u201cthe third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.\u201d He explains that \u201cthe first year surprises everybody, that makes up a lot of ground. The second year seems like it stalls because it consolidates that first year of gains. And the third year is the mania year. And right now, beginning next month, we have the mania year that is on deck.\u201d<\/p>\n

He predicts that \u201cwithin the next 90 days\u2026 we\u2019re going to break out of this consolidating range; we\u2019re going to break to the upside.\u201d Once this happens, he believes Bitcoin \u201cisn\u2019t going to look back,\u201d anticipating a period that \u201cmay only see one or two red monthly candles and mostly green candles.\u201d While he refrains from providing specific price targets, he acknowledges that reaching \u201csomewhere between $120,000 and $180,000 also seems very reasonable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Loukas emphasizes that the focus should be on \u201ctime and sentiment,\u201d aiming for a move \u201cin the range where prior cycles have peaked,\u201d which has been \u201cvery consistent at around month 35 since the last low.\u201d This timing would place the projected peak around \u201cOctober of 2025,\u201d giving \u201canother 12 months to an expected or projected peak.\u201d He notes that this is not set in stone and that the peak could come \u201cthree, four, five months earlier,\u201d as market movements \u201ccan come in many different flavors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Turning to the immediate future, Loukas admits that the next two months are \u201ca little murky,\u201d with \u201ca lot of factors still at play right now.\u201d He brings up the upcoming US election on November 4th, mentioning that \u201cTrump and the GOP<\/a> have really been pushing crypto and Bitcoin,\u201d and that \u201cthe market is certainly going to respond very, very favorably to an election win by the GOP purely because of their stance on crypto.\u201d However, he clarifies that he doesn\u2019t think \u201cit matters one bit\u201d who wins, as Bitcoin has thrived even when \u201cgovernments have been very hostile towards it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Loukas speculates that the market might \u201ctrend sideways into that period in November,\u201d and that a significant move might not occur until after the election concludes. He suggests that \u201cwe still have around three to four weeks of some trending sideways action,\u201d and he would be \u201chighly surprised if this market can push into the $70,000s before the election here in the US.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $60,699.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crypto analyst Bob Loukas has released a new video analysis titled \u201cNo Bull.\u201d In the video, Loukas delves into the current state of the Bitcoin market, addressing growing concerns about the possibility of a canceled bull run. Loukas begins by acknowledging the prolonged period of consolidation for the Bitcoin price. He senses that \u201cthere is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13114"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13114\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}