Ex-Ripple CTO David \u201cJoelKatz\u201d Schwartz pushed back on viral XRP price calls, arguing that today\u2019s market price is already a referendum on how much credible capital actually believes in a near-term path to $100. His comments also spilled into a broader discussion about XRPL economics and scaling tradeoffs that, in his view, get lost in the hype cycle.<\/p>\n
Schwartz was responding<\/a> to an X user urging him to tell \u201cxrp supporters\u201d that XRP \u201ccan\u2019t and won\u2019t go to 50-100$,\u201d warning that \u201cSo many people get poor with investing in xrp.\u201d Schwartz declined to make an absolute claim, but framed the debate in probabilistic terms, pointing to his own history of being surprised by crypto\u2019s upside.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t feel comfortable saying something like that,\u201d Schwartz wrote. \u201cWhile I don\u2019t think it\u2019s likely, I didn\u2019t think it was likely that XRP would ever hit $0.25. I started selling XRP at $0.10 because it seemed insane. I remember when bitcoin hitting $100 seemed like an impossible dream.\u201d<\/p>\n Rather than debating narratives, Schwartz offered a market-math thought experiment: if rational investors truly believed there was a meaningful chance of XRP reaching $100<\/a> within a few years, the current price would not sit far below double digits for long.<\/p>\n \u201cIf many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn\u2019t sell very much today at much less than $10,\u201d he said. \u201cThose with that belief would quickly buy up most of the XRP, because they\u2019d value it more highly than those without that belief, and soon the supply of XRP well below $10 would dry up.\u201d<\/p>\n Schwartz then drew his conclusion from the gap between the hypothetical and the tape. \u201cThat the current trading price is well below $10<\/a> shows that there aren\u2019t very many people who really think it has a 10% chance of hitting $100 within a few years with enough confidence to put their money where their mouth is,\u201d he wrote, adding: \u201cSo anyone who says otherwise is not telling the truth.\u201d<\/p>\n He emphasized that readers can \u201cdo that same math\u201d with different odds, time frames, and target prices. In a final note, Schwartz argued his baseline assumption is that crypto markets are \u201crational most of the time,\u201d with major bull runs typically catalyzed by \u201cunpredictable external changes,\u201d rather than widely telegraphed certainties.<\/p>\n