The Bitcoin price is under increasing pressure ahead of Wednesday\u2019s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has historically corresponded with big price movements in the market\u2019s largest cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Economists surveyed by financial data provider FactSet anticipate <\/a>the federal funds rate \u2014 the benchmark rate banks use for overnight lending \u2014 will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.\u00a0<\/p>\n Such a pause would follow three consecutive rate cuts delivered by the Fed toward the end of last year, a shift that initially fueled optimism across risk assets, including the Bitcoin price.<\/p>\n Despite that earlier momentum, the Bitcoin price has struggled to maintain its footing. Ahead of the FOMC decision, the cryptocurrency is trading near $87,780, roughly 30% below the all\u2011time highs<\/a> reached last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to Bitcoin\u2019s historical behavior around FOMC meetings as a reason for caution. In a recent post <\/a>on X (previously Twitter) Martinez highlighted that expectations for a January rate cut are extremely low, estimated at just 2.8%, signaling that meaningful policy easing is unlikely in the near term.\u00a0<\/p>\n That backdrop, he argues, has often set the stage for increased volatility for the Bitcoin price rather than sustained upside. Looking back at 2025, Martinez noted that Bitcoin reacted negatively after the vast majority of the Fed\u2019s policy meetings.\u00a0<\/p>\n Of the eight FOMC decisions <\/a>held during the year, seven were followed by notable declines for the Bitcoin price. The January meeting was followed by a 27% drop, March saw a 14% decline, June was down 8%, July slipped 6%, September fell 7%, October recorded a 29% pullback, and December ended with a 9% loss.\u00a0<\/p>\n The analysts noted that the only exception seen in the year came in May, when the Bitcoin price briefly rallied about 15% after the decision.\u00a0<\/p>\n From a technical and on\u2011chain perspective, analyst BitBull also sees the Bitcoin price approaching a critical moment. BitBull noted <\/a>on social media that the asset has entered what she describes as a key on\u2011chain decision zone.\u00a0<\/p>\n At current levels, the Bitcoin price is trading almost exactly at the Active Investor Mean, estimated near $87,500. This level represents the average cost basis for active buyers, placing much of that capital at breakeven.\u00a0<\/p>\n BitBull explained that pressure is building on both sides of the price. Above current levels, the short\u2011term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater.\u00a0<\/p>\nBitcoin Price Approaches Key Decision Zone<\/h2>\n