Chris Burniske, cofounder of Placeholder VC and former crypto lead at Ark Invest, is mapping out where he would consider stepping back into Bitcoin if the market keeps sliding, after earning fresh credit on X for calling major turning points this cycle. His framework lands in the mid-$80,000s down to the low-$50,000s, while a separate technical view from analyst Aksel Kibar points to a broader \u201cbase building\u201d process with support clustered in the mid-$70,000s.<\/p>\n
Burniske wrote<\/a> that he is \u201cnot a buyer yet,\u201d but outlined several price areas he\u2019s monitoring. In his view, roughly $80,000 matters as the November 2025 low and a local trough of the current downswing. Below that, he highlighted roughly $74,000, tying it to the April 2025 low and describing it as the \u201cTariff Tantrum\u201d bottom; he also noted it sits just under Strategy\u2019s (MSTR)<\/a> stated Bitcoin cost basis of around $76,000.<\/p>\n He then pointed to around $70,000 as the top of the prior $50,000\u2013$70,000 band near the 2021 high, before shifting to a more structural level near $58,000. That zone, he wrote, aligns with the 200-week simple moving average and an on-chain cost basis, with RV around $56,000<\/a>. Finally, he flagged $50,000 and below as a psychological line, arguing that a break under it would likely revive \u201cdeath of BTC\u201d narratives.<\/p>\n I\u2019m not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC<\/a> are:<\/p>\n ~$80K: Nov \u201925 low, local low of this \u201cbear\u201d \u2014 Chris Burniske (@cburniske) January 25, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Burniske\u2019s posture is deliberately non-committal on timing. \u201cImportantly, I don\u2019t care what happens,\u201d he wrote, adding that if Bitcoin rallies he will \u201cride what I have and diversify,\u201d while a deeper unwind would have him buying more Bitcoin and \u201cselect crypto assets.\u201d<\/p>\n The thread also touched altcoins. Asked how he thinks about alts versus Bitcoin, Burniske said it\u2019s \u201cbest imo to buy alts after you think btc is near bottom,\u201d reinforcing that he\u2019s treating BTC\u2019s downside process as the key gating factor for broader risk-taking. On positioning, he said he is sitting \u201cin treasuries, where yield > inflation,\u201d and when asked about an upside level that would force him back in, he replied that he \u201cwouldn\u2019t chase,\u201d preferring to hold existing exposure rather than re-risk at higher prices.<\/p>\n Burniske\u2019s renewed attention followed praise from Anthony Pompliano, who told him: \u201cYou nailed the SOL bottom and the BTC top over this cycle.\u201d Burniske\u2019s reputation for calling tops is partly tied to an October 2025 post<\/a> in which he argued the market had likely been structurally damaged after a sharp selloff.<\/p>\n \u201cWe can always get another weak bounce, but I\u2019ve taken action accordingly,\u201d he wrote at the time. \u201cI\u2019ll likely get interested in the market again when I see BTC $75K or lower.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n~$74K: April \u201925 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR<\/a>\u2018s cost basis (~$76K)
\n~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near \u201921 high
\n~$58K: 200W SMA &\u2026<\/p>\nBreakdown Or Bottoming Phase?<\/h2>\n