Software Engineer and founder of various AI start ups Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) argues on X that most XRP burn projections are understated because they assume today\u2019s low transaction fees persist even under heavy network usage. In his framing, sustained congestion on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could push fees higher via the protocol\u2019s load-scaling mechanics, potentially destroying on the order of one billion XRP annually.<\/p>\n
In a thread titled \u201cThe \u2018Supply Meltdown\u2019 Simulation,\u201d Vincent Van Code claimed \u201ceveryone is calculating the XRP burn wrong,\u201d starting with the premise that the commonly cited base fee<\/a> of 0.00001 XRP only reflects a quiet network. \u201cBut what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?\u201d he wrote, positioning load-driven fee escalation as the pivotal variable rather than raw throughput alone.<\/p>\n Van Code\u2019s simulation walks through multiple fee regimes at the same headline activity rate, emphasizing that burn changes dramatically when the ledger is full and the \u201cLoad Factor\u201d increases fees to deter spam<\/a>. \u201cAs the ledger fills up, the Load Factor kicks in to stop spam,\u201d he wrote. \u201cFees don\u2019t just stay low; they scale exponentially.\u201d<\/p>\n He anchored the thread with four scenarios and daily burn estimates, starting with what he called a \u201cstandard day\u201d of 1.2 million transactions and roughly 450 XRP burned per day. From there, he modeled \u201cglobal adoption\u201d at the stated 3,400 TPS ceiling, translating to about 293 million transactions per day at base fee and an estimated 2,937 XRP burned daily.<\/p>\n The more aggressive claims come when he holds transaction volume constant at that 293 million-per-day level but lifts the effective fee via congestion. In his \u201ccongestion hike\u201d case, he assumes the load-scaled fee rises to 0.001 XRP, implying about 293,760 XRP burned per day. In a \u201cfull gridlock\u201d case at 0.01 XRP per transaction, he estimates 2,937,600 XRP burned daily.<\/p>\n The thesis leans on a structural feature of XRPL fees: they are not paid out to validators or any sponsoring entity, but removed from circulation. Van Code underscored that distinction directly. \u201cThe fees aren\u2019t paid to miners. They aren\u2019t paid to Ripple. They are destroyed forever.\u201d<\/p>\n The \u201cSupply Meltdown\u201d Simulation \u2014 Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) January 24, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n
\nHeadline: Everyone is calculating the $XRP<\/a> burn wrong.
\nThe \u201cbase fee\u201d (0.00001 XRP) only exists when the network is quiet. But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?
\nThe Congestion Math:
\nAs the\u2026<\/p>\n