XRP has given back all of its early\u2011year gains, sliding toward the $1.90. Despite the pullback, several on\u2011chain and market indicators are pointing to a possible breakout from current levels, driven largely by a sharp decline in XRP held on exchanges.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Market analyst Sam Daodu notes <\/a>that over the past months, a substantial portion of XRP has steadily moved off centralized trading platforms and into long\u2011term storage and institutional custody.\u00a0<\/p>\n On\u2011chain figures indicate that XRP exchange balances dropped from roughly 4 billion tokens in early 2025 to about 1.5 billion by late December. This 57% decline represents the steepest annual reduction in XRP exchange supply on record.<\/p>\n Data from CryptoQuant reinforces this trend, showing shrinking XRP reserves on major trading platforms such as Binance<\/a>, where balances continued to fall into early 2026. At the same time, wallet accumulation has increased, particularly among institutional custody accounts.\u00a0<\/p>\n Daodu argues that with fewer tokens available on exchanges, buying pressure that previously moved XRP only marginally can now drive gains of 10% to 15% within days.\u00a0<\/p>\n When combined with approximately $1.37 billion in XRP exchange-traded fund <\/a>(ETF) inflows recorded since November 2025, Daodu believes the conditions favor a potential breakout toward the $4 to $5 range, rather than another rally that stalls below $3.<\/p>\n Looking ahead, Daodu outlines three broad price paths for XRP, each tied to how exchange balances<\/a> and ETF inflows evolve. In a bullish scenario, the altcoin could move into the $4 to $5 range if monthly ETF inflows average $300-$500 million and exchange balances fall below 1.5 billion tokens.\u00a0<\/p>\n A more neutral outcome would see XRP trading between $2.50 and $3.50. This scenario assumes ETF inflows slow to roughly $50 million to $70 million per week and exchange balances continue to decline at a steadier pace.\u00a0<\/p>\nBullish, Base, And Bearish Scenarios<\/h2>\n