Fundstrat\u2019s Tom Lee reiterated his $250,000 Bitcoin target while cautioning that 2026 could be a \u201cjagged\u201d year for crypto adoption and a turbulent one for broader risk assets, framing any major pullback as a buying window rather than a signal to de-risk.<\/p>\n
Speaking on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost in an interview<\/a> released Jan. 20, Lee said he expects 2026 to ultimately \u201clook like a continuation of the bull market that started in 2022,\u201d but argued markets must first digest several transitions that could deliver a drawdown large enough to \u201cfeel like a bear market.\u201d<\/p>\n Lee pointed to what he described as a \u201cnew Fed\u201d dynamic<\/a>, arguing markets tend to \u201ctest\u201d a new chair and that the sequencing of identification, confirmation, and reaction can catalyze a correction. He also warned that the White House could become \u201cmore deliberate in picking winners and losers,\u201d expanding the set of sectors, industries, and even countries \u201cin the bullseye,\u201d which he said is already visible in gold\u2019s strength.<\/p>\n A third friction point, in his telling, is AI positioning: the market is still calibrating \u201chow much is priced into AI,\u201d from energy needs to data-center capacity, and that uncertainty could linger until other narratives take the baton.<\/p>\n Pressed on magnitude, Lee said with regards to the S&P 500, the drawdown \u201ccould be 10%,\u201d but also \u201ccould be 15% or 20%,\u201d potentially producing a \u201cround trip from the start of the year,\u201d before finishing 2026 strong. He added that his institutional clients did not appear aggressively positioned yet, and flagged leverage as a tell: margin debt is at an all-time high, he said, but up 39% year-over-year\u2014below the 60% pace he associates with local market peaks.<\/p>\n For crypto, Lee leaned on a market-structure explanation for why gold outperformed: he said crypto tracked gold until Oct. 10, when the market suffered what he called \u201cthe single largest deleveraging event<\/a> in the history of crypto,\u201d \u201cbigger than what happened in November 2022 around FTX.\u201d<\/p>\n$250,000 Bitcoin Call Comes With A 2026 Warning<\/h2>\n