We analyzed current signals for BTC based on data from options markets, liquidations heatmap, funding rates and open interest:<\/p>\n
The Bottom Line: Last week, traders took on a defensive stance (hedging), with fears of a pullback to\u00a0$84,000.<\/p>\n
altFINS\u2019 BTC trade setup<\/a> below shows that after moving sideways for weeks, price broke out of a Channel Down pattern, which signaled a bullish trend reversal and price reached our near-term target of $94,000, where it got rejected so\u00a0far.<\/p>\n If it breaks above that, it could continue to recover to $100,000 next. But there are likely to be some pullbacks along the way, providing new entry opportunities during this trend reversal path. We would be buyers on pullbacks to $88K key level\u00a0again.<\/p>\n See 50 fresh trade setups<\/a> by altFINS and AI-based trade signals\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Over the past few weeks, the BTC and ETH options markets have\u00a0changed.<\/p>\n The Puts v. Calls options \u2018skew\u2019 implies how traders, institutional mostly, are positioning. If they\u2019re buying Calls, they are bullish. If they\u2019re buying Puts, they are\u00a0bearish.<\/p>\n During December and early January, the options positioning was improving from very Bearish to\u00a0Neutral.<\/p>\n But just in the last week that sharply corrected.<\/p>\n This movement suggests that the \u201csmart money\u201d is actively hedging against a volatility spike rather than betting on an immediate breakout.<\/p>\n Basically \u2018whales\u2019 are increasingly buying insurance (buying puts) to protect from a potential \u2018vacuum\u2019 drop in BTC\u00a0price.<\/p>\n Based on data on Jan 10, 2026, the BTC liquidation heatmap shows a market coiled between two massive liquidity clusters.<\/p>\n 1. The \u201cMagnet\u201d Below: There is a massive $10.6B long liquidation wall sitting at $84,000. Because the market is currently hovering around $90,000 traders see that massive pile of liquidity as a \u201cmagnet.\u201d They are buying puts (lowering the skew) to hedge against a potential hunt for that liquidity.<\/p>\n 2. Rejection at $95,000: BTC recently failed to clear the $95,000 level, which would have liquidated about $2B in shorts. Since that \u201cshort squeeze\u201d failed, the path of least resistance has shifted toward the downside clusters.<\/p>\n 3. Institutional Defensive Posture: The skew is reflecting a shift from \u201caggressive buying\u201d to \u201ccapital preservation.\u201d<\/p>\n The \u201cPain Point\u201d As of January 10, 2026, the funding rate data confirms that the market is currently in a state of \u201cDeleveraging &\u00a0Reset.\u201d<\/p>\n When we combine our observation of the options skew dropping to -4% with the current funding data, a very clear picture emerges: the speculative \u201cheat\u201d has left the room, and traders are now paying for safety rather than\u00a0upside.<\/p>\n Current perpetual funding rates across major exchanges (Binance, Bybit, OKX) have compressed significantly over the last 48\u00a0hours:<\/p>\n Current Rate: ~0.007% to 0.01% (every 8\u00a0hours).Annualized: Roughly 7%\u200a\u2014\u200a11%\u00a0APR.The Context: Just a few days ago, funding was as high as 0.05% (50%+\u00a0APR).<\/p>\n What this means: Longs are no longer aggressively paying shorts to keep their positions open. The \u201cleverage tax\u201d has vanished because many speculative longs have already closed their positions (either voluntarily or via small liquidations as BTC dipped toward $90,000).<\/p>\n Open Interest has stabilized around $30.6 Billion. While this is high, the fact that it isn\u2019t rising alongside a price drop is actually a \u201chealthy\u201d sign\u200a\u2014\u200ait means we aren\u2019t seeing a massive wave of new \u201cpanic shorts\u201d yet. Instead, we are seeing a \u201cslow bleed\u201d of exhausted longs.<\/p>\n BTC update: Are Whales Hedging Downside Risk?<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Are whales hedging BTC and\u00a0ETH? We analyzed current signals for BTC based on data from options markets, liquidations heatmap, funding rates and open interest: The Bottom Line: Last week, traders took on a defensive stance (hedging), with fears of a pullback to\u00a0$84,000. altFINS\u2019 BTC trade setup below shows that after moving sideways for weeks, price […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":126641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-126640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126640"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126640\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/126641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Options Skew Sharply\u00a0Declines<\/h3>\n
BTC \u2018Hunt for Liquidity\u2019?<\/h3>\n
The $87,000 level is the immediate trigger. If BTC trades below this, it could ignite the first $5B cluster of liquidations. This creates a \u201cforced selling\u201d loop that could drive BTC to $84,000 level\u00a0quickly.<\/p>\nFunding rates indicate a \u2018Cool\u00a0Down\u2019<\/h3>\n
Open Interest (OI)\u00a0Analysis<\/h3>\n