VanEck\u2019s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel said Bitcoin could reach a valuation of nearly $2.9 million by 2050 under the firm\u2019s long-term base-case scenario.<\/p>\n
This projection is driven by BTC\u2019s adoption as a settlement currency for 5% to 10% of global trade and its emergence as a reserve asset comprising 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.<\/p>\n
In a note detailing VanEck\u2019s 25-year capital market assumptions, Sigel projected<\/a> a 15% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin between 2026 and 2050, as he framed the asset\u2019s long-term value around structural monetary adoption rather than short-term price cycles.<\/p>\n The analysis treats Bitcoin as a non-sovereign monetary asset whose valuation cannot be captured by traditional equity-based models such as discounted cash flow or price-to-earnings ratios. Instead, VanEck based this analysis on BTC\u2019s potential penetration into two addressable markets, which are global trade settlement and official reserve assets held by central banks.<\/p>\n Based on these assumptions, the asset manager\u2019s base case results in a $2.9 million price per BTC by 2050, using a baseline price of approximately $88,000 as of December 31, 2025, solely to calculate implied growth rates. VanEck also presented alternative scenarios to frame risk.<\/p>\n In a bear case, where adoption stalls and Bitcoin fails to meaningfully penetrate either trade settlement or reserve assets, the firm estimated a 2% compound annual growth rate and a price of roughly $130,000 by 2050. At the upper end, VanEck described a bull-case scenario in which Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP. Under this scenario, BTC\u2019s price would reach about $53.4 million, which implies a 29% annualized return and requires it to rival or exceed gold\u2019s role as a global reserve asset.<\/p>\n While VanEck focuses on multi-decade adoption scenarios, near-term market structure tells a different story. Matrixport, for one, stated that Bitcoin\u2019s 2026 outlook is less about a new cycle and more about \u201ctactical\u201d trading. The firm explained<\/a> that the crypto asset has entered a materially different regime than past early-cycle rebounds, and broader structural indicators still appear unfavorable for a bull market despite some improving<\/a> technical signals.<\/p>\n Declining volumes, weakening capital inflows, and historical behavior after a break below the one-year moving average point to a more selective and challenging environment ahead. On-chain data further validates this view and shows large, experienced holders steadily distributing supply while new address growth and realized-cap inflows remain muted, which indicates limited fresh capital and low participation from new investors.<\/p>\n The post Here\u2019s Why VanEck Says Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million by 2050<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" VanEck\u2019s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel said Bitcoin could reach a valuation of nearly $2.9 million by 2050 under the firm\u2019s long-term base-case scenario. This projection is driven by BTC\u2019s adoption as a settlement currency for 5% to 10% of global trade and its emergence as a reserve asset comprising 2.5% of central […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":126048,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-126047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126047"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126047\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/126048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Fragile Market Conditions<\/h2>\n