Bitcoin is heading into New Year\u2019s Eve on the verge of printing a red yearly candle, an awkward setup after a year packed with pro-crypto policy and institutional headlines. Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said BTC is down 6.3% year-to-date and 8.25% year-over-year, and would need a daily close above $93,389 on New Year\u2019s Eve to finish 2025 positive.<\/p>\n
The late-year mood has been defined by a soft Q4 tape and a deeper drawdown than many bulls expected this late in the cycle. Thorn noted BTC traded as low as roughly 36% below its Oct. 6, 2025 all-time high of $125,296, even as a steady stream of bullish headlines landed throughout the year.<\/p>\n
\u201cDespite the tepid finish, 2025 was a banner year for Bitcoin. Even Bitcoin\u2019s staunchest supporters wouldn\u2019t have believed some of 2025\u2019s headlines just a few years ago\u2026 2025 has been filled with dozens of positive headlines for Bitcoin that in the past would have sparked euphoria. Today, these victories feel like par for the course. Maybe we really are \u2018tired of winning?\u2019\u201d Thorn wrote in Galaxy\u2019s weekly research note.<\/p>\n
Thorn argued that part of the market\u2019s stalled feel is mechanical, not philosophical. He pointed to a large month-end options expiry as a potential catalyst for loosening the range-bound behavior he described between the mid-$80,000s and $90,000.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin\u2019s Most Important Resistance Level<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cA significant options expiry at the end of the month clear some of the outstanding dealer gamma that has encouraged bitcoin to stay pinned between major $85k and $90k, and January may prompt some portfolio managers to take a fresh look at the world\u2019s oldest cryptocurrency. There are reasons why the quiet period we\u2019ve seen for the last month will not persist in the near term.\u201d<\/p>\n He also cited headwinds that hit spot demand and risk appetite: \u201csignificant whale distribution<\/a>,\u201d an Oct. 10 leverage wipeout, and competition from other macro trades such as AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the \u201cMag 7.\u201d He said US bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows are down only 9% from their October peak of $62 billion, even though bitcoin fell sharply from its highs and, in his estimate, 60% of ETF inflows<\/a> are underwater at current prices.<\/p>\n That resilience, he argued, makes the source of selling more notable. \u201cSo, who has been selling?\u201d Thorn wrote. \u201cThe call is coming from inside the house.\u201d Since July 2025, he said coins held by long-term holders have declined more sharply than at any point in the eight years since the 2017 bull run, suggesting older on-chain holders have been net sellers into newer brokerage-led demand.<\/p>\n Thorn framed that distribution as painful in the short run but constructive for the asset\u2019s long-run maturity, lifting the average cost basis and broadening ownership. He highlighted bitcoin\u2019s realized market cap above $1.1 trillion and a realized price above $56,000 as evidence of the network\u2019s rising aggregate principal.<\/p>\n
\nOne of Thorn\u2019s key observations was the divergence between bitcoin\u2019s drawdown and US bitcoin ETF behavior.<\/p>\n