{"id":123464,"date":"2025-12-29T09:56:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T09:56:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=123464"},"modified":"2025-12-29T09:56:31","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T09:56:31","slug":"bitwise-cio-bitcoin-futures-four-year-cycle-is-being-replaced-by-a-10-year-grind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=123464","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Futures Four-Year Cycle Is Being Replaced by a \u201c10-Year Grind\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. Price explodes, sentiment overheats, the market crashes, and the clock resets.<\/p>\n<p>But as <\/p>\n<p>\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-widget-container\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t<!-- name of the coin in the text --><br \/>\n\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-widget-wrapper\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-widget-holder \"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-name\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-icon \"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-label \">Bitcoin<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-symbol hidden\">BTC<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price hidden\">$89,597.92<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend  positive\">2.55%<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t\t<!-- popup with basic info about the coin --><br \/>\n\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-wrapper \"><br \/>\n\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-name\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-icon\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-name\">Bitcoin<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-symbol\">BTC<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-title\">Price<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-value\">$89,597.92<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend positive\">2.55% \/24h<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-volume\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-volume-title\">Volume in 24h<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-volume-value\">$29.06B<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t&lt;!&#8211; <span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend\">?<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>                     &#8211;&gt;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-chart\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-graph-title\">Price 7d<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-graph-container positive\"><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-link\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/goto\/bestwallet\" target=\"_self\" class=\"cwp-coin-custom-link\" rel=\"noopener\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tLearn more\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t\t<br \/>\n\t<\/p>\n<p>\t inches deeper into the institutional bloodstream, many <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/best-crypto-to-buy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wall Street analysts <\/a>are predicting that the framework is breaking.<\/p>\n<p>That debate took center stage this week on CNBC\u2019s Crypto World, where <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/analysis\/top-crypto-stocks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Hougan of Bitwise<\/a> and Sebastian Bea of Reserve One laid out<strong> \u201cthe new four-year cycle.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>DISCOVER: <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-crypto-to-explode\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>What Is The New Four Year Cycle For Bitcoin Futures?<\/h2>\n<div class=\"chart crypto-chart-instance\">\n<div class=\"chart__header\">\n<div class=\"chart__info\">\n<div class=\"chart__info-icon\">\n<div class=\"chart__info-name\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-symbol\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-current\">\n<div class=\"chart__info-price\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-change\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-extra\">\n<div class=\"chart__info-label\">Market Cap<\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-marketcap\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__controls\">\n<div class=\"chart__controls-group\">\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--24h\">24h<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--7d\">7d<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--30d\">30d<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--1y\">1y<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--all-time\">All Time<\/button>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Hougan\u2019s argument is simple. The forces driving Bitcoin today are structurally larger than miner supply shocks. <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/crypto-presales\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Spot ETFs<\/a>, regulatory clarity, stablecoins, and tokenization are pulling Bitcoin into a slower, steadier market regime.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think the four-year cycle is less important now than it was in the past,\u201d said Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not in a four-year cycle anymore. We\u2019re in a 10-year grind upward with strong returns and lower volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Real Vision CEO <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaoulGMI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@RaoulGMI<\/a> says the four year cycle is now a five year cycle, and the big liquidity burst is yet to come <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mI7sLmkPti\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/mI7sLmkPti<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Solana (@solana) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana\/status\/1999025880220434554?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">December 11, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n<p>That framing helps explain why Bitcoin can be down roughly 30% from its October highs near $125,000 without collapsing. According to CoinGecko, BTC volatility over the past year has actually dropped below that of Nvidia, which, honestly speaking, is quite nuts.<\/p>\n<p>The cycles for all assets are <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-1000x-crypto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">increasingly more volatile<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span>DISCOVER:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-1000x-crypto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"cfg-chart-container\">\n<div class=\"cfg-top-content-holder\">\n<h4 class=\"cfg-chart-title\">\n            Crypto Fear and Greed Chart        <\/h4>\n<div class=\"cfg-time-range-selector\">\n            <span class=\"cfg-alltime\">All time<\/span><br \/>\n            <span>1y<\/span><br \/>\n            <span>1m<\/span><br \/>\n            <span>1w<\/span><br \/>\n            <span>24h<\/span>\n        <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cfg-chart-holder\">\n<div class=\"cfg-chart-body\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Bea pushed back on the idea that cycles are gone entirely, arguing that humans still trade markets, yet humans are predictably irrational.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis cycle hasn\u2019t been that great,\u201d said Sebastian Bea, CIO of Reserve One.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf we\u2019re seeing 2x returns instead of 10x, that alone tells you the structure has changed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hougan added that major wirehouses only approved Bitcoin ETFs months after launch, and the average institutional allocation takes eight quarterly meetings to finalize. Translation: <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-1000x-crypto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the slow money<\/a> is just getting started.<\/p>\n<h2>Data Check: Liquidity, Not Politics, Is Driving BTC<\/h2>\n<p>The CNBC panel was clear that Bitcoin\u2019s recent stagnation has less to do with Washington and more to do with liquidity. <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/glassnode.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Glassnode metrics <\/a>indicate long-term holders remain largely intact despite recent drawdowns.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBitcoin is a macro asset,\u201d said Sebastian Bea.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat matters right now is liquidity, not headlines from the Hill.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If this really is a staircase up with fewer elevator crashes, which TBH it feels like, the four-year cycle may not be dead. It may just be drowned out by something bigger and slower, and far more institutional. Exponential gains might be found away from Bitcoin in the wider crypto market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EXPLORE:<a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/news\/bitcoin-btc\/seeking-a-career-change-become-a-bitcoin-bounty-hunter-in-fordow-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Seeking a Career Change? Become a Bitcoin Bounty Hunter in Fordow, Iran<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways\">\n<h2 class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways__title\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<p>        For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. All that is dead.    <\/p>\n<p>         Bea pushed back on the idea that cycles are gone entirely, arguing that humans still trade markets, yet humans are predictably irrational.\u00a0    <\/p><\/div>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/news\/bitcoin-btc\/bitwise-cio-bitcoin-futures-four-year-cycle-is-being-replaced-by-a-10-year-grind\/\">Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Futures Four-Year Cycle Is Being Replaced by a \u201c10-Year Grind\u201d<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/\">99Bitcoins<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. Price explodes, sentiment overheats, the market crashes, and the clock resets. But as Bitcoin BTC $89,597.92 2.55% Bitcoin BTC Price $89,597.92 2.55% \/24h Volume in 24h $29.06B &lt;!&#8211; ? &#8211;&gt; Price 7d Learn more inches deeper [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-123464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123464"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=123464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=123464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=123464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=123464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}