Crypto analyst Quantum Ascend has published a weekly-chart \u201croadmap\u201d for Shiba Inu (SHIB) in a new video, laying out three upside targets for a potential altcoin cycle, while warning that SHIB\u2019s deep multi-year drawdown could cap the move if macro conditions deteriorate.<\/p>\n
In his X post, Quantum Ascend listed \u201cAltseason Targets\u201d as a conservative level (\u201c$0.47 e-8,\u201d as written), a \u201cPrimary\u201d target of $0.00014, and a \u201cBlow-Off\u201d target of $0.00035. In the video, the analyst anchored the roadmap to Elliott Wave-style structure and Fibonacci extensions, and emphasized that the bullish path is conditional, not guaranteed.<\/p>\n
Starting from SHIB\u2019s 2021 peak and the subsequent collapse, the analyst said the drawdown returned price to a historically meaningful zone: \u201cCount out the five wave moves there pretty cleanly, but since then, nothing but a drawdown\u2026 Came back down right into this wave four low.\u201d<\/p>\n
From that setup, Quantum Ascend argued the decline can be read as a \u201ccrashing pattern\u201d that often resolves with a reversal back toward prior highs.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo you have your five waves down, and typically what\u2019ll happen, price will roll back up to the fourth wave, and then what it does is it\u2019s going to come take out this fifth wave. This is six, come take out that fifth wave, even if it\u2019s just a little for a wave seven, then it\u2019s done and it turns back the other direction, right? So when we\u2019re looking at it from this perspective, we can see pretty textbook for the level it went to,\u201d the analyst said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo now that you see the case for a new high\u2026 we got to start taking these fibs into play here and figure out, all right, where\u2019s some logical price levels for this thing to end up.\u201d<\/p>\n
Quantum Ascend then flagged the biggest constraint: SHIB\u2019s magnitude of drawdown relative to prior-cycle behavior<\/a>. \u201cThe one thing that\u2019s stopping me from saying, yep, 100%, we\u2019re going to see new highs, is going back to 2021, price is down 93% at the worst and right now down 92%,\u201d the analyst said.<\/p>\n \u201cBack in 2021, coins that set their highs in 2017 and had a 90% plus drawdown did not set new highs in the 2021 cycle\u2026 So this is a four-year range down 90 plus percent. It fits the parameter of some of those other coins that never ended up going off into a new all-time high.\u201d<\/p>\n If that historical analog holds, the analyst said SHIB could be tracing a larger corrective structure rather than a fresh impulse. \u201cIf that\u2019s the case, then this count would be five waves up and then we have an A, B into the retracements, and then C would start taking us much lower. That coincides with a recession-depression<\/a> type feel,\u201d the analyst said, adding: \u201cAnd I do believe that that is the base case moving forward here\u2026 It\u2019s just really important to understand the broader macro climate. Like this Shiba isn\u2019t going unless everything else is lined up.\u201d<\/p>\n Even so, Quantum Ascend laid out upside zones using confluence between broader and nearer-term Fibonacci ranges. The analyst\u2019s stated primary target for an \u201caltseason environment\u201d is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at roughly $0.00014 which translates to a 1,800% rally from the current price. He added: \u201cMy blow-off is going to be a full 4.236 extension here of this range.\u201d The blow-off scenario<\/a> hits $0.00035, but was presented by him as technically possible but unlikely.<\/p>\n Market-cap math was used as a reality check. \u201cThe thing I\u2019ll say about SHIB is it\u2019s at a $4.2 billion market cap right now. That\u2019s pretty big, especially for what it is,\u201d the analyst said, estimating that a move to the conservative area would imply roughly a $25 billion valuation and that the most extreme scenario would push into triple-digit billions. \u201cThat is massive getting up there\u2026 That\u2019s like a 50x from where we\u2019re at. And at that point, you\u2019re talking 200 billion for a coin that doesn\u2019t really do anything\u2026 In no way, shape, or form is this my base case.\u201d<\/p>\n $SHIB<\/a> | @Shibtoken<\/a> <\/p>\n Macro Structure Points to New Highs <\/p>\n Altseason Targets Here\u2019s the Roadmap pic.twitter.com\/nWxQsVtLvv<\/a><\/p>\nThe Bullish Case For SHIB Price<\/h2>\n
\n\u27a4\u27a4 Conservative: $0.47 e-8
\n\u27a4\u27a4 Primary: $0.00014
\n\u27a4\u27a4 Blow-Off: $0.00035<\/p>\n