Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel posted a bitcoin \u201coversold RSI\u201d roadmap on X, arguing the market has tracked it closely and tying the setup to a broader view that the cycle could run into 2026\u2014an outlook he says would render the traditional \u201cfour-year cycle\u201d framework obsolete.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I\u2019ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,\u201d Bittel wrote, sharing a chart of bitcoin\u2019s average price path after RSI falls below 30, with the RSI breach marked as t=0. \u201cThis shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bittel said<\/a> the overlay has matched the current tape. \u201cSo far, it\u2019s been pretty bang on,\u201d he wrote. The \u201caverage market path\u201d line rises sharply over the weeks that follow. The chart shows a steep rally within 90 days after t=0, with the BTC price potentially surging near the $180,000 area.<\/p>\n Still, Bittel emphasized the chart is not meant to be a precision forecast. \u201cNo, it won\u2019t be perfect,\u201d he wrote, adding that \u201cassuming the bull market isn\u2019t already over, it\u2019s a useful chart to keep in mind.\u201d He also warned that the rebound process can be uneven: \u201cbases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.\u201d<\/p>\n He reiterated the conditional nature of the framework in blunt terms. \u201cIf you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n The bigger point, Bittel said, is that the familiar cycle narrative should not be taken for granted. \u201cUnless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don\u2019t, this chart should hold up contextually over time,\u201d he wrote. \u201cAs we\u2019ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026<\/a>.\u201d In that scenario, he added, \u201cthe 4-year cycle<\/a> is dead.\u201d<\/p>\n Bittel also challenged the common assumption that bitcoin\u2019s rhythm is fundamentally \u201cabout the halving.\u201d \u201cRemember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle,\u201d he wrote, adding that post-COVID that dynamic \u201cwas pushed out by one year.\u201d He now argues the cycle is \u201cofficially broken\u201d because \u201cthe weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.\u201d<\/p>\n He framed the macro backdrop in terms of debt-service pressure and liquidity response. \u201cThe bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth,\u201d Bittel wrote.<\/p>\n Reactions across crypto X ranged from enthusiastic to skeptical. The \u20bfitcoin Therapist replied: \u201c$180,000 BTC in 90 days.\u201d<\/p>\n LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) said the chart \u201clines up with our thinking,\u201d tying the narrative to what it called the Fed\u2019s \u201cnot QE QE<\/a>\u201d dynamics and \u201cliquidity games\u201d between the Treasury and the central bank. The account still anticipated turbulence into year-end\u2014\u201cnoise and chop into year end (which is negative liquidity)\u201d\u2014before \u201cthese fundamental drivers start to see BTC reconnect with the bull trend,\u201d adding that \u201csentiment appears sufficiently bad<\/a> for a BTC move higher to be the most hated trade to start 2026!\u201d<\/p>\n Others struck a more sardonic tone. \u201cprecision-grade hopium here,\u201d wrote doug funnie (@cryptoklotz), while still sketching a conditional path forward: Still think as long as BTC survives (ie doesn\u2019t close in the $70k\u2019s and starts grinding down or accepting there), there\u2019s a plausible path to new highs on the earlier side in 2026. Just need to survive the \u2018transition zone\u2019 of 4 year deterministic selloors exhausting, and then ending up in an awkward spot as the music keeps playing.\u201d<\/p>\n Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards was more critical of the statistical grounding, urging a broader test set: \u201cNow re run this with 100 occurrences, not 5 during up only.\u201d<\/p>\n For traders, Bittel\u2019s post effectively combines a tactical signal with a regime call: the RSI sub-30 template may map the rebound path, but only \u201cassuming the bull market isn\u2019t already over,\u201d and only in a world where, as he put it, \u201cthe balance of probabilities\u201d favors a cycle that \u201cextends well into 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n At press time, BTC traded at $87,330.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel posted a bitcoin \u201coversold RSI\u201d roadmap on X, arguing the market has tracked it closely and tying the setup to a broader view that the cycle could run into 2026\u2014an outlook he says would render the traditional \u201cfour-year cycle\u201d framework obsolete. \u201cA lot of people […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":121461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-121460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121460"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=121460"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121460\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/121461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=121460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=121460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=121460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}