Bitcoin is trading in a world where headlines still scream \u201cbull\u201d or \u201cbear\u201d while the underlying structure quietly refuses to play along. After spiking to an all-time high in the $124,000\u2013$126,000 zone in early October and then shedding roughly a third of its value into November, BTC now sits in the low-$90,000s, still dominant but clearly winded.<\/p>\n
Into that confusion steps pseudonymous renowned crypto industry veteran plur daddy (@plur_daddy) who suggests<\/a> the market may be in neither regime at all. \u201cBecause of the 4 year cycle, all crypto market participants are primed to view the market as either in a bull or bear phase,\u201d he wrote on X. \u201cWhat if, as a part of the market maturing, we are simply in an extended consolidation window where overhead supply is being absorbed?\u201d<\/p>\n It is a simple framing shift with fairly big implications. He points to gold, which \u201cchopped between $1,650\u20132,050 from April 2020 to March 2024,\u201d and argues it is \u201clogical to assume that as BTC evolves, it will exhibit more gold-like behaviors.\u201d In other words: not dead, not euphoric, just\u2026 stuck in a fat, liquidity-soaked range where supply changes hands from weak to strong for longer than traders raised on clean halving cycles are emotionally prepared to tolerate.<\/p>\n The range dynamics are already visible at the top end. According to plur, \u201csellers emerged aggressively whenever price entered the $120k range.\u201d He notes there are \u201cstrong arguments\u201d those sellers were driven by the four-year cycle meme<\/a>, but \u201cequally good arguments\u201d they were reacting to more prosaic considerations: age, price, liquidity, thesis change, and \u201cemerging tail risks.\u201d If BTC revisits that zone, he thinks it is \u201crational for people to front run that, which helps reinforce the range.\u201d Classic reflexivity: people remembering the last top create the next one.<\/p>\n On the downside, he is not in the doom camp. \u201cThis also dovetails with my intuitive feeling that the lows may be in<\/a>, or at the least not significantly lower than what we have seen, but upside also being capped,\u201d he wrote, adding that liquidity conditions are \u201cpoised to moderately improve,\u201d creating room for a bounce \u2013 just not necessarily a new regime. Or as he put it with some restraint, he\u2019d \u201cbe cautious about betting on regime change.\u201d<\/p>\n That \u201cmoderate improvement\u201d is not theoretical. Yesterday\u2019s FOMC meeting delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut<\/a>, taking the Fed funds target to 3.50\u20133.75%, alongside a surprise announcement: roughly $40 billion a month in \u201creserve management purchases\u201d (RMPs) of short-dated Treasuries, starting December 12 and guided to remain elevated for several months.<\/p>\n The official line is that this is a technical step to keep reserves \u201cample\u201d and repo markets functioning, not a new round of QE<\/a>.<\/p>\n Macro voices on X are, unsurprisingly, not unified on that distinction. Plur Daddy added via X: \u201cThis is different from QE because the main way that QE works is through pulling duration out of the market, forcing market participants to move up the risk curve. However, they snuck in there that they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out. This is more bullish than expected, and helps bridge market liquidity into the new year.\u201d<\/p>\n Miad Kasravi (@ZFXtrading) insists<\/a>, \u201cFED is NOT doing QE. Just expanding balance sheet via Money-market displacement,\u201d arguing that when the Fed buys bills, the prior holder gets cash that \u201chas to go somewhere\u201d and \u201csome of it seeps into credit, equities, crypto.\u201d<\/p>\n LondonCryptoClub takes the gloves off. In his view, the Fed is \u201cbasically going to print money to keep funding this deficit for as long and as large as needed,\u201d adding that \u201cthe debasement trade is on autopilot mode.\u201d He backs Lyn Alden\u2019s earlier remark that \u201cit\u2019s money printing. Whether it\u2019s QE or not is more semantics. Fed won\u2019t call it QE since it\u2019s not duration and it\u2019s not for economic stimulus.\u201d<\/p>\n Lyn Alden nails it<\/p>\n Markets are going to tie themselves up arguing over the semantics and overcomplicating it<\/p>\n Yet they\u2019re printing money and monetising the deficit<\/p>\n It\u2019s all the same thing. Admittedly, this is QE-lite\u2026for now at least<\/p>\n Believe it or not, market participants\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/cf7QLogWom<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) December 10, 2025<\/a><\/p>\nBitcoin Market Puzzled: QE Or Not QE?<\/h2>\n