Bitcoin\u2019s familiar post-halving price story is facing a serious rethink after strategist and researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera published a lengthy analysis earlier in the week, arguing that every previous post-halving rally lined up with massive global liquidity shifts rather than the programmed reduction of new coins.<\/p>\n
Perera contended that the relationship between halvings and price appreciation is \u201cstatistically unprovable\u201d despite sixteen years of data.<\/p>\n
His takeaway is blunt: liquidity, not issuance cuts, has likely guided every major bull phase, and investors may be mistaking correlation for causation.<\/p>\n
The substance of Perera\u2019s argument rests on one distinction: while the halving mechanism that reduces issuance is predictable and baked into Bitcoin\u2019s code, linking it to price jumps has no statistical foundation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe halving mechanism is mathematically verifiable to near certainty. The causal relationship between halvings and price is statistically unprovable,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
His report reviewed<\/a> Bitcoin data through December 2025 and earlier liquidity episodes, noting that the first four halvings coincided with the Cyprus banking shock in 2013, lingering post-crisis money expansion in 2016, and historic pandemic-era monetary injections after 2020.<\/p>\n Further, the analyst highlighted how the 2024 price peak occurred before the April halving, undermining the conventional view that the event itself triggered that bull run.<\/p>\n Instead, institutional inflows via newly approved spot Bitcoin ETFs appear as a more plausible catalyst, matching with Perera\u2019s view that Bitcoin now behaves less like a fixed-supply commodity and more like a high-beta macro asset.<\/p>\n The author also pointed to a widely circulated September 2024 study from analyst Lyn Alden, which calculated<\/a> a 0.94 statistical relationship between Bitcoin and Global M2 money supply going back to 2013. He warned, however, that a high degree of association is not proof of a driving mechanism, arguing that rigorous econometric scrutiny of these trending variables is still lacking.<\/p>\n He also noted that Bitcoin tends to rise during periods of expanding credit and fall sharply when liquidity tightens. According to him, a good example of such an event was the August 2024 yen carry trade unwind, when a rapid shift in Japanese rates hammered risk assets and sent Bitcoin tumbling.<\/p>\n What stands out across recent market commentary is that, even as new highs kept coming in 2025, the size of each post-halving rally appears to be fading. Recent research by CoinGecko found that the 2017 cycle returned<\/a> 29x, while the 2025 run has been much smaller, although still positive.<\/p>\n Despite the dip, companies have continued to ramp up buying, with market leader Strategy acquiring<\/a> another 10,624 BTC this week, bringing its holdings to over 660,000 BTC.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, regulatory shifts may shape future liquidity more than block rewards. Japan\u2019s newly unveiled crypto framework could eventually channel<\/a> sizable household wealth into Bitcoin through ETFs and institutional funds if parliament approves forthcoming rule changes.<\/p>\n Together, these developments feed Perera\u2019s wider argument: the halving still defines Bitcoin\u2019s scarcity schedule, but markets may be driven far more by global money conditions than supply cuts alone.<\/p>\n The post New Analysis Challenges Bitcoin\u2019s Core Investment Narrative<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin\u2019s familiar post-halving price story is facing a serious rethink after strategist and researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera published a lengthy analysis earlier in the week, arguing that every previous post-halving rally lined up with massive global liquidity shifts rather than the programmed reduction of new coins. Perera contended that the relationship between halvings and price […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":119577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-119576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119576"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=119576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/119577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=119576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=119576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=119576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Post-Halving Gains Are Shrinking While Institutions Accumulate<\/h2>\n