Macro strategist Alex Kr\u00fcger is tying Bitcoin\u2019s next macro chapter directly to the coming reshuffle at the Federal Reserve, warning that investors are underpricing how far US rates could fall under a Trump-aligned central bank.<\/p>\n
In a long X post<\/a> titled \u201c2026: The Year of the Fed\u2019s Regime Change,\u201d he argues that \u201cthe Federal Reserve as we know it ends in 2026\u201d and that the most important driver of asset returns will be a new, much more dovish Fed led by Kevin Hassett. His base case is that this shift becomes a key driver for risk assets broadly and Bitcoin in particular in 2026, even if crypto markets are currently trading as if nothing fundamental has changed.<\/p>\n Kr\u00fcger\u2019s scenario is anchored in personnel. He notes that prediction platform Kalshi put the odds of Hassett becoming chair<\/a> at 70% as of 2 December, and describes him as a supply-side loyalist who \u201cchampions a \u2018growth-first\u2019 philosophy, arguing that with the inflation war largely won, maintaining high real rates is an act of political obstinacy rather than economic prudence.\u201d<\/p>\n A few hours after Kr\u00fcger\u2019s thread, Trump himself added fuel, telling reporters at the White House that he would announce his Fed pick \u201cearly next year\u201d and explicitly teasing National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a possible choice, after saying the search had been narrowed down to one candidate.<\/p>\n To explain how this would translate into policy, Kr\u00fcger reconstructs Hassett\u2019s stance from his own 2024 comments. On 21 November, Hassett said \u201cthe only way to explain a Fed decision not to cut in December would be due to anti-Trump partisanship.\u201d Earlier he argued, \u201cIf I\u2019m at the FOMC, I\u2019m more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell is less likely,\u201d adding, \u201cI agree with Trump that rates can be a lot lower.\u201d Across the year he endorsed expected rate cuts as merely \u201ca start,\u201d called for the Fed to \u201ckeep cutting rates aggressively,\u201d and supported \u201cmuch lower rates,\u201d leading Kr\u00fcger to place him at 2 on a 1\u201310 dove\u2013hawk scale, with 1 being the most dovish.<\/p>\nWhy The Federal Reserve Will Dramatically Change<\/h2>\n