{"id":11522,"date":"2024-10-04T14:00:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T14:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=11522"},"modified":"2024-10-04T14:00:49","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T14:00:49","slug":"rip-altcoin-seasons-crypto-analyst-debates-whether-theyll-ever-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=11522","title":{"rendered":"RIP Altcoin Seasons? Crypto Analyst Debates Whether They\u2019ll Ever Return"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an analysis<\/a> shared on X, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) delves into the question that\u2019s been looming over the crypto community in recents months: \u201cWill we never have a proper altcoin season again?\u201d As Bitcoin\u2019s dominance (BTC.D) continues to surge and altcoins struggle to keep pace, Astronomer provides a data-driven perspective challenging the prevailing narratives that suggest the era of altcoin seasons may be over.<\/p>\n

Astronomer begins by acknowledging the difficulties faced by altcoin holders in the current market environment. \u201cAlts are still at low prices and BTC.D is raging up, and yes, ETH (and altcoin) holders are having a tough time,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n

He observes a growing sentiment of disbelief among investors that Bitcoin dominance could decline again, casting doubt on the potential for another altcoin season. \u201cYou hear things like \u2018BTC ETF changed everything,\u2019 \u2018Boomers will not buy altcoins which is why they won\u2019t go up,\u2019 \u2018BTC is at ATH and alts have done nothing.\u2019 Which are all things that are easy to say and grasp because they fit the current chart perfectly,\u201d Astronomer explains.<\/p>\n

However, he cautions against accepting these narratives at face value. \u201cThey give you a sense of comfort and a reason to not hold any alts, which is typically rough during accumulation stages, especially if the BTC chart \u2018looks\u2019 a lot better,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n

To provide clarity, Astronomer offers his own definition of an altcoin season: \u201cA true altcoin season is one where liquidity from the most dominant asset (BTC) flows to the other assets (ETH and altcoins). As a consequence, BTC.D drops and nearly all altcoins go up.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Case For An Impending Altcoin Season<\/h2>\n

Astronomer lays out a series of facts to support his argument that an altcoin season is still on the horizon:<\/p>\n

#1 Historical Precedence<\/p>\n

\u201cFirst fact: we had the big altcoin season every single cycle (4-year rotation) like clockwork,\u201d he asserts. This pattern is not only evident in historical charts but also in the collective memory of those active during previous cycles. Astronomer cautions against adopting a \u201cthis time is different\u201d mindset, which inherently positions investors at a disadvantage. \u201cHistory rhymes\/repeats,\u201d he reminds readers.<\/p>\n

#2 Bitcoin Dominance Chart Aligns With 4-Year Cycle<\/p>\n

\u201cThe BTC.D chart is on track with its 4-year cycle<\/a>,\u201d Astronomer notes. He previously predicted that a top in Bitcoin dominance would occur around months 34 to 38 of the cycle. \u201cWe are now month 33 in the 4-year cycle, which means the tides are about to shift in just a few months,\u201d he points out. Believing that Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise unchecked is essentially betting against established cyclical patterns, according to the analyst.<\/p>\n

#3 The Grand Crypto Rotation<\/p>\n

\u201cThe \u2018first Grand Altcoin rotation\u2019 generally happens once per cycle: around Q4 in year 3 of the cycle and is again playing out like clockwork so far,\u201d Astronomer states. He explains that in previous cycles, certain altcoins (a minority) perform strongly early on, driven by specific narratives, while the majority experience significant gains later, fueled by liquidity flowing from Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

He cites the 2018\u20132022 cycle as a prime example. \u201cIn this cycle, in the first 3 years, LINK is a great example as it was one of the strongest top 100 altcoins and has put in a 100x, while ETH (and all the other BTC liquidity-driven altcoins) have put in a measly 3x,\u201d he explains. In the last year of that cycle, the dynamics shifted: \u201cETH has put in a 10x, and LINK has only gained another 3x or so.\u201d<\/p>\n

#4 Overrated Impact Of Bitcoin ETF<\/p>\n

Addressing the notion that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF<\/a> has fundamentally altered market dynamics, Astronomer is skeptical. \u201cThe BTC ETF narrative to cancel alt season is way overrated,\u201d he argues. He points out that since their launch, ETF total flows have accumulated up to $40 billion, while Bitcoin\u2019s centralized exchange (CEX) volumes average $20 billion daily. \u201cETF flows are negligible, which is why you never heard me talk about them as I like to filter noise,\u201d he asserts.<\/p>\n

#5 Favorable Monetary Policy Looms<\/p>\n

Astronomer also highlights macroeconomic factors that could benefit altcoins. \u201cInterest rates<\/a> are on the decline, the US money supply is increasing drastically (where now also China is following suit). The only thing we are waiting for is QE, which is typically a natural consequence of M2 increasing (with a delay),\u201d he explains. Historically, such monetary conditions have been conducive to altcoin appreciation. \u201cThe monetary policy shifting in our favor typically also means altcoins do well,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n

#6 Bitcoin\u2019s All-Time High Is An Arbitrary Indicator<\/p>\n

He challenges the idea that Bitcoin reaching an all-time high (ATH) without a concurrent altcoin season signals a permanent decoupling. \u201cBTC being at ATH is an arbitrary gauge to when alt season begins and the fact that it reached ATH but altcoin season hasn\u2019t begun yet is, in my opinion, not valid to call it canceled,\u201d Astronomer argues. He emphasizes that time and cyclical patterns are more significant factors than price milestones.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $61,129.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In an analysis shared on X, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) delves into the question that\u2019s been looming over the crypto community in recents months: \u201cWill we never have a proper altcoin season again?\u201d As Bitcoin\u2019s dominance (BTC.D) continues to surge and altcoins struggle to keep pace, Astronomer provides a data-driven perspective challenging the prevailing narratives […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11522"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11522\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}