{"id":115080,"date":"2025-11-23T10:00:39","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T10:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=115080"},"modified":"2025-11-23T10:00:39","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T10:00:39","slug":"top-analyst-sounds-alarm-bitcoin-is-highly-unlikely-to-spring-back-anytime-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=115080","title":{"rendered":"Top Analyst Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Is Highly Unlikely To Spring Back Anytime Soon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is trading in a fragile state <\/a>after slipping below $90,000 and now in the mid-$80,000s. This price action has caused some analysts to grapple with the possibility that the next major rally may be further away than many expect.<\/a><\/p>\n

A recent technical outlook from prominent crypto analyst Tony \u201cThe Bull\u201d Severino adds weight to this concern. His analysis focuses on<\/a> the 6-week LMACD momentum indicator, which has just crossed bearish for the first time in years.<\/p>\n

Momentum Turns Against Bitcoin On The 6-Week LMACD<\/h2>\n

The technical outlook highlights a strong warning from Severino, who argues that Bitcoin is nowhere close to staging <\/a>the kind of explosive recovery many are waiting for.<\/p>\n

Severino\u2019s message revolves around momentum, which he says is now firmly pointed downward<\/a>. The momentum is cited using the recent crossover on the 6-week LMACD, which is known for its decisive crossovers that confirm long-term trend changes.<\/p>\n

The 6-week LMACD is a lagging signal, meaning that by the time it flips bearish, Bitcoin is already well into a downturn. The chart confirms this with multiple examples: Bitcoin entered extended red phases lasting 812 days, 861 days, and 686 days following previous bearish crossovers.<\/p>\n

Because the signal lags price action, Bitcoin typically bottoms long after the crossover occurs. Severino noted that bear-market lows always appear between 250 and 365 days after the bearish flip, not within a few weeks. Therefore, traders expecting a bottom only 40 days after the new signal are ignoring how consistently slow this indicator behaves.<\/p>\n

The chart also highlights how severe each downturn becomes once the LMACD flips bearish. Previous cycles saw drawdowns of roughly 69% to 75% from the moment the cross happened, even though Bitcoin had already fallen significantly before the indicator flashed.<\/p>\n

Please pay attention to this post if you want to understand why Bitcoin is highly unlikely to suddenly spring back into a bull run<\/p>\n

One word: Momentum<\/p>\n

The 6-week LMACD has some of the cleanest crossovers representing pivotal trend change confirmation points. The signal lags,\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/mq9uR2Fqec<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Tony \u201cThe Bull\u201d Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) November 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

A Possible Long Road Before Any Significant Recovery<\/h2>\n

Although the LMACD signal just crossed bearish,<\/a> the current crossover is still unconfirmed for another 15 days, and the resemblance to past cycles is something to keep in mind.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Severino noted that he is not predicting the end of Bitcoin\u2019s long-term prospects, but he is urging traders to stop expecting rapid upside.<\/a> Past behavior does not guarantee the same outcomes, and there is no certainty that Bitcoin will drop another 70% from here like previous cycles.<\/p>\n

The 6-week LMACD is a high-timeframe signal, and the shifts it captures reflect deep structural trends rather than short-term fluctuations. This means Bitcoin could still be months away from its true cycle bottom.<\/a><\/p>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $85,670, down by 11% and 23% in the past seven and 30 days, respectively. Severino\u2019s analysis means that the Bitcoin price could spend a prolonged period hovering around these levels or experience a further decline <\/a>before any meaningful recovery into a new bull phase begins.<\/p>\n

Featured image from See The Wild, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is trading in a fragile state after slipping below $90,000 and now in the mid-$80,000s. This price action has caused some analysts to grapple with the possibility that the next major rally may be further away than many expect. A recent technical outlook from prominent crypto analyst Tony \u201cThe Bull\u201d Severino adds weight to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":115081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-115080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115080"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=115080"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115080\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/115081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=115080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=115080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=115080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}