Bitcoin is days from printing another daily \u201cdeath cross\u201d \u2014 the 50-day simple moving average slipping beneath the 200-day \u2014 but analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) argues the label misleads more than it informs.<\/p>\n
In a November 12 video breakdown<\/a> titled \u201cBTC Daily Death Cross \u2014 How It Works And What To Expect,\u201d he contends that every daily death cross of this cycle has coincided with the late stages \u2014 and, in practice, the lows \u2014 of multi-month corrective phases. \u201cDon\u2019t fall for the posts that say, \u2018Oh my god, death cross on the daily, we\u2019re going down 80%.\u2019 That\u2019s not how these have played out,\u201d he says. \u201cRemember, moving averages are lagging indicators [\u2026] the move that caused the cross has already occurred.\u201d<\/p>\n The framing is data-driven and distinctly cyclical. This market, he stresses, has not behaved like 2017 or 2020\u20132021, when vertical advances never allowed the 50-day to undercut the 200-day during the advance. Instead, 2023\u20132025 has featured long pauses of 114 to 174 days, with price grinding sideways-to-down before pushing higher again.<\/p>\n Each of those pauses bent the 50-day lower long enough for a cross, and each cross clustered near the end of the corrective window. \u201cThis cycle we have seen these consistent, right, 150, 160-plus days of corrective periods [\u2026] and with that causes the moving averages to act differently,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Kevin revisits the three prior crosses. In 2023, after the brutal post-$30k range that followed the breakout from bear-market lows, the death cross \u201cmarked the lows [\u2026] basically the end of the correction.\u201d Bitcoin chopped for roughly a month, then embarked on what he calls \u201cthe biggest rally of the cycle,\u201d carrying from roughly $25k to $73k as altcoins \u201cwent berserk [\u2026] 5x to 8x, some 10x.\u201d<\/p>\n The 2024 instance came after the mid-cycle top in March and a year-long grind into the US election window. A single \u201c16% candle on one day\u201d stabbed into the lows a few days before the cross; the cross itself arrived after the damage, followed by two months of chop and then a Q4 recovery bid amid \u201cthe election exuberance\u201d and a \u201cdovish\u201d turn in Fed rhetoric, pushing Bitcoin \u201cto about $110k.\u201d<\/p>\n The third case, in Q1 2025, was even cleaner. As markets corrected from late-December\/early-January peaks amid tariff fears and froth, the 50-under-200 print \u201cliterally marked the bottom of the correction,\u201d with an immediate recovery. He characterizes 2025 as a year of reclamation rather than expansion: \u201cWe barely made a new all-time high [\u2026] that\u2019s just kind of been 2025 in a nutshell,\u201d which explains \u201cwhy sentiment is just so bad.\u201d<\/p>\n The core mechanism is lag. Because the 50- and 200-day SMAs average past prices, their cross reflects a move already completed. \u201cAlmost 100% of the time when a death cross occurs, you do get a retrace back up into your moving averages,\u201d Kevin says, adding that the key question is whether Bitcoin\u2019s bounce merely tags that cluster or reclaims it with authority.<\/p>\n He highlights a specific line in the sand: \u201cCan it reclaim the $106.8k level on weekly closes? If Bitcoin can reclaim its daily moving averages [\u2026] and its $106.8k level on weekly closes, Bitcoin should have the opportunity at making a new all-time high.\u201d Failure would argue that \u201cthe four-year cycle<\/a> just played out normally and Bitcoin just had a really weak cycle,\u201d with altcoins never delivering a classic \u201calt season.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst leans into the present confusion. He notes a schism among four-year-cycle adherents over whether the clock should be measured from the bottom or from the halving, and he points to evidence of distribution from long-term holders: \u201cWhales that have been holding since the Satoshi era [are] offloading their Bitcoin.\u201d The broader macro backdrop is part of the story. This has been \u201ca restrictive monetary policy environment where liquidity was being sucked out of the system and rates were just too restrictive,\u201d with AI-led equities absorbing risk flows. \u201cThe NASDAQ and S&P have been making new all-time highs<\/a> for multiple years,\u201d he says, while the Russell \u201cbarely broke out to a new all-time high a few weeks ago.\u201d In other words, crypto\u2019s underperformance is not isolated.<\/p>\n What comes next, in Kevin\u2019s view, is a clean market test. The daily death cross is \u201ca day or two away,\u201d likely into the weekend, and traders should expect a response toward the moving averages. The decisive stage is whether price can then clear the stack \u2014 \u201cour 200 SMA, our 200 EMA, our 100 EMA, and even this 50 SMA\u201d \u2014 and convert the $106.8k weekly close level back into support.<\/p>\nWhat The Bitcoin Death Cross Means<\/h2>\n
What Comes Next For BTC?<\/h2>\n
\nEven so, he frames spot resilience as non-trivial: \u201cPretty surprised that Bitcoin is still hanging around at $105k given the fact that it\u2019s had that much sell pressure [\u2026] back in earlier days when Bitcoin was topping out and whales were offloading, Bitcoin was going through 50% corrections.\u201d<\/p>\n