Former chairman and co-founder of CoinRoutes and now president of BetterTrade.digital Dave Weisberger used a November 11 video to restate Bitcoin\u2019s long-term bull case, arguing that the market\u2019s \u201cmorose\u201d sentiment and technician-driven calls for downside are missing the structural shift underway on both fundamentals and market microstructure.<\/p>\n
He framed his analysis in two parts\u2014why Bitcoin is being bought and what the current market structure implies\u2014contending that the thesis toward seven-figure pricing remains intact even without an obvious near-term catalyst.<\/p>\n
On fundamentals, he drew a direct comparison with gold\u2019s monetary role and size. Citing an above-ground market value of \u201caround $28 trillion\u201d and \u201cabout $7 trillion in known reserves below ground,\u201d Weisberger argued that roughly 80% of gold\u2019s value is monetary, not industrial, using the platinum\u2013gold price relationship as a proxy.<\/p>\n
\u201cGold today trades at about two and a half times platinum, which for most of my life was about double the price of gold,\u201d he said, adding that platinum is \u201c30 times rarer and more valued by women in jewelry.\u201d From that relative-value lens, he estimated gold\u2019s \u201cmonetary value fully diluted around $28 trillion,\u201d contrasting it with Bitcoin\u2019s \u201cfully diluted market cap [\u2026] just over $2 trillion at today\u2019s prices.\u201d<\/p>\n
If Bitcoin equals or surpasses gold on monetary characteristics, he argued, the gap implies transformative upside: \u201cIt could rise to equal gold. Except it\u2019s better than gold on monetary characteristics.\u201d He emphasized Bitcoin\u2019s native digital finality, resistance to counterfeiting, divisibility, transparency, and programmatic supply schedule\u2014benefits that also avoid gold\u2019s custody, assay, and transport frictions.<\/p>\n
Even in a scenario where fiat \u201cholds its value,\u201d he suggested, network adoption alone could warrant a multi-fold repricing; in a debasement regime, he said, the asymmetry is stronger: \u201cAs the Bitcoin network grows and it gains acceptance it\u2019ll likely rise by 10 times this or more.\u201d Via X, he added \u201cthe Fundamental case\u201d is $1 million in today\u2019s dollars.<\/p>\n
Weisberger revisited the \u201cfastest horse\u201d framing popularized in the early COVID-era liquidity surge. He pointed to Paul Tudor Jones\u2019s thesis in \u201cMay of 2020,\u201d acknowledging he misspoke initially, and reminded viewers that the price then \u201cdid nothing\u201d for months before a stepwise acceleration from October through the subsequent euphoric leg higher. The lesson, in his view, is that market tone can lag fundamentals until positioning resets and liquidity leadership rotates back to Bitcoin. \u201cHistory doesn\u2019t always repeat, but it can sometimes rhyme,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
On market structure, Weisberger took aim at the four-year halving cycle as a predictive template. Historically, he said, cyclical behavior followed a pattern\u2014halving, a six-month period of miner-incentive doubt, then a relief-to-euphoria rally that later bled into altcoin rotation before a broad drawdown.<\/p>\n
He argued that dynamic is losing relevance because supply changes are now \u201cirrelevant relative to the amount of demand that\u2019s going on,\u201d while network security trends tell a different story: \u201cIf you look at the Bitcoin hash rate chart, it\u2019s increasing at a geometric pace.\u201d The moving parts he sees actually driving prices are the interaction of legacy supply and institutional demand. \u201cIt\u2019s basically the OG sellers<\/a> who are selling over 100,000 [BTC] and the new buyers, whether they\u2019re in ETFs or in MicroStrategy, etc.\u201d<\/p>\n Those early holders, in his telling, are rationally diversifying life-changing gains rather than capitulating, which implies a finite overhang: \u201cEntrepreneurs don\u2019t generally sell everything [\u2026] they sell some at a level to get where they need to be and then [\u2026] sell at later prices.\u201d<\/p>\n He underscored that spot ETF investors appear patient despite recent volatility. \u201cEven after all of the carnage of the last few weeks since October 10th, less than 2% of the Bitcoin ETFs have outflown,\u201d he said, characterizing that cohort as long-horizon allocators \u201clooking for a 10x gain,\u201d not trading around single-digit drawdowns.<\/p>\n He contrasted October\u2019s deleveraging<\/a>\u2014\u201c$20 billion was liquidated [\u2026] but only five billion of the liquidation was in Bitcoin\u201d\u2014with the 2022 insolvency cascade: \u201cThis cycle doesn\u2019t have a Celsius [\u2026] doesn\u2019t have an FTX<\/a>. The impact of the liquidations is not going to be to cause an insolvency event which causes forced sales.\u201d<\/p>\n Without a credit-driven unwind, he argued, technical analogies to 2022 are misplaced: \u201cIf there\u2019s no forced sales, why do we expect a sale on the magnitude that happened in 2022 [\u2026]? They\u2019re trying to impute something without taking into account the actual circumstance.\u201d<\/p>\n Price leadership, in his view, will return through \u201cliquidity and slow grinding growth\u201d while \u201chot money\u201d recovers from leverage-driven losses. He expects the OG selling to \u201cabate,\u201d as partial profit-taking runs its course, setting the stage for the next euphoric leg once a catalyst emerges.<\/p>\n Weisberger did not pretend to know which spark will ignite it\u2014\u201cI\u2019m not a Nostradamus\u201d\u2014but listed plausible vectors that are consistent with prior cycles: \u201cThe catalyst could be sovereign accumulation<\/a>. The catalyst could be Bitcoin being used as collateral [\u2026] It doesn\u2019t really matter what the catalyst is.\u201d<\/p>\n The key risk for would-be sellers, he suggested, is time out of the market during the inflection: \u201cUnless you are very nimble, very quick, have no tax consequences, and aren\u2019t out of the market or on vacation in the two or three days when euphoria first starts, then I would be very, very reticent to sell here.\u201d<\/p>\n My 2 part Bitcoin analysis:<\/p>\n 1) The Fundamental case for $1 Million Bitcoin in TODAYS dollar<\/p>\n 2) Why the current gloom is unwarranted & now is a great time to accumulate Bitcoin for the long haul<\/p>\n The Bull Case For Bitcoin 11 11 https:\/\/t.co\/0ACKrn3bgQ<\/a> via @YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n