Bitcoin pushed sharply higher in early European trade on Monday, November 10, 2025, briefly reclaiming the $106,000 handle after a volatile weekend. The move arrives as a cluster of macro-liquidity signals and policy headlines flips risk appetite at the margins.<\/p>\n
Under the surface, traders point to three interlocking drivers: an abrupt shift in Federal Reserve balance-sheet guidance, rising odds that Washington\u2019s shutdown saga could be resolved imminently with a subsequent Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown<\/a>, and a fresh wave of policy chatter\u2014from 50-year mortgages to potential relief checks\u2014that revives the \u201cliquidity impulse\u201d debate.<\/p>\n The most concrete development is the Fed\u2019s communication pivot on reserves and the balance sheet. New York Fed President John Williams signaled last week that, with reserves sliding from \u201cabundant\u201d toward merely \u201cample,\u201d the central bank may soon need to resume asset purchases\u2014not for stimulus, but to maintain smooth money-market functioning as the Fed halts quantitative tightening on December 1 and begins fully reinvesting maturing Treasuries.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Fed may soon need to expand the balance sheet for liquidity needs,\u201d Williams said, emphasizing any buying would be technical rather than a new QE program. QT will stop<\/a> on December 1 and officials are preparing for balance-sheet growth as needed to stabilize reserves.<\/p>\n Washington politics, paradoxically, is the other tailwind. Prediction markets now handicap material odds that the record-long US government shutdown will be resolved in mid-November. Polymarket shows odds for 87% for a resolution between November 12\u201315 range.<\/p>\n Why does that matter for Bitcoin? Because when a shutdown ends, Treasury spending typically picks up and, all else equal, cash flows out of the TGA at the Fed into the banking system, raising bank reserves. That mechanical linkage\u2014TGA down, reserves up\u2014has been well documented. A reserve boost, especially with the Fed no longer draining liquidity via QT, is the kind of macro backdrop that has historically coincided with stronger crypto bid.<\/p>\n Into that mix, fresh policy chatter is stoking \u201cliquidity imagination.\u201d Over the weekend, President Trump<\/a> and FHFA leadership floated the idea of permitting 50-year mortgages, a change that, if implemented through the government-sponsored enterprises, would materially reshape US housing finance duration and lower monthly payments at the cost of higher lifetime interest.<\/p>\n On X, the liquidity narrative is being distilled\u2014loudly\u2014into punchy memes and historical analogies. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) summed up<\/a> the day\u2019s bull case: \u201cBullish weekly close. 90% chance US shutdown ends this week (Polymarket). Fed dropping rates 1% over 18 months. Fed confirmed plan to grow balance sheet! Equities Fear & Greed in extreme Fear! Put\/Call ratio bullish. Send Bitcoin back up.\u201d<\/p>\n