Bitcoin is testing a key level that has previously marked the start of major market corrections. The 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA), now near $102,000, has served as a long-term support line in multiple past cycles. Its failure has often led to extended drawdowns.<\/p>\n
As of press time, the asset was priced at $103,000, showing a modest 1% gain over the last 24 hours. Over the past week, it has declined 7%, with daily trading volume near $61.7 billion.<\/p>\n
Market history shows that each time Bitcoin lost the 50W SMA, a sharp correction followed. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed<\/a> to several examples where this support failed: a 50% drop in 2011, 67% in 2014, 60% in 2018, and 66% in late 2021. The 2020 crash during the COVID outbreak also saw a 55% decline after the same breakdown.<\/p>\n Martinez stated,<\/p>\n \u201cBitcoin has seen an average 60% drop each time it has lost the 50W SMA as support.\u201d<\/p>\n Based on that pattern, a confirmed break below $102,000 could project a potential move toward $40,000. This level is now being viewed as a make-or-break area for Bitcoin\u2019s longer-term structure.<\/p>\n <\/a>Source: Ali Matinez\/X<\/p>\n Analyst Lennaert Snyder also marked<\/a> $102,000 as a short-term support level to monitor. He noted that the 4-hour chart still shows an uptrend and added,<\/p>\n \u201cI prefer to hold key $102,000 support to not lose the 4H uptrend.\u201d<\/p>\n He also pointed to $107,100 as a key level for bulls to reclaim.<\/p>\n Analyst Ted observed<\/a> that Bitcoin moved below the EMA-50 and emphasized the importance of the weekly close. He explained,<\/p>\n \u201cA weekly close below EMA-50 means the dump is just the beginning.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, key liquidity levels sit<\/a> near $90,000 and $126,000, with the possibility of a drop to fill the CME gap before any recovery.<\/p>\n Linton Worm pointed<\/a> to a confirmed bearish MACD cross and linked it to previous cycle tops. \u201cIn 2021, it predicted the crash. Now the same is happening,\u201d he said, adding that $70,000 could be the next support to watch if pressure continues.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, data from Darkfost showed<\/a> a sharp drop in Bitcoin open interest across major exchanges. Since October 10, open interest has declined by over $10 billion, led by Binance, which saw a $4 billion decrease. Bybit and Gate.io followed with drops of $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Leverage remains low, and confidence among traders appears limited as the correction unfolds.<\/p>\n The post History Says Bitcoin (BTC) May Fall 60% If This Key Support Fails to Hold<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin is testing a key level that has previously marked the start of major market corrections. The 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA), now near $102,000, has served as a long-term support line in multiple past cycles. Its failure has often led to extended drawdowns. As of press time, the asset was priced at $103,000, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":110930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110929"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=110929"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110929\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/110930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=110929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=110929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=110929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Key Short-Term Levels and Price Reaction<\/h2>\n
Market Structure, MACD Signal, and Open Interest<\/h2>\n
![<\/a>Source: Ali Matinez\/X<\/p>\nKey Short-Term Levels and Price Reaction<\/h2>\nAnalyst Lennaert Snyder also marked<\/a> $102,000 as a short-term support level to monitor. He noted that the 4-hour chart still shows an uptrend and added,<\/p>\n\u201cI prefer to hold key $102,000 support to not lose the 4H uptrend.\u201d<\/p>\nHe also pointed to $107,100 as a key level for bulls to reclaim.<\/p>\nAnalyst Ted observed<\/a> that Bitcoin moved below the EMA-50 and emphasized the importance of the weekly close. He explained,<\/p>\n\u201cA weekly close below EMA-50 means the dump is just the beginning.\u201d<\/p>\nMeanwhile, key liquidity levels sit<\/a> near $90,000 and $126,000, with the possibility of a drop to fill the CME gap before any recovery.<\/p>\nMarket Structure, MACD Signal, and Open Interest<\/h2>\nLinton Worm pointed<\/a> to a confirmed bearish MACD cross and linked it to previous cycle tops. \u201cIn 2021, it predicted the crash. Now the same is happening,\u201d he said, adding that $70,000 could be the next support to watch if pressure continues.<\/p>\nMeanwhile, data from Darkfost showed<\/a> a sharp drop in Bitcoin open interest across major exchanges. Since October 10, open interest has declined by over $10 billion, led by Binance, which saw a $4 billion decrease. Bybit and Gate.io followed with drops of $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Leverage remains low, and confidence among traders appears limited as the correction unfolds.<\/p>\nThe post History Says Bitcoin (BTC) May Fall 60% If This Key Support Fails to Hold<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin is testing a key level that has previously marked the start of major market corrections. The 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA), now near $102,000, has served as a long-term support line in multiple past cycles. Its failure has often led to extended drawdowns. As of press time, the asset was priced at $103,000, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":110930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110929"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=110929"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110929\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/110930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=110929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=110929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=110929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/G4-8uz9WMAAQ4Qj.jpeg\"){kind=link}