Bitcoin endured one of its sharpest selloffs of the year on Tuesday, knifing below the six-figure threshold and printing lows around the $99,000 area on major composites before rebounding. At press time, bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $101,700 after an intraday trough just above $99,000 on widely used benchmarks, marking a fall of roughly 6% day-over-day and the lowest print since June.<\/p>\n
The slide came as US equities limped into mid-week, with the Nasdaq up 20.9% year-to-date and the S&P 500 up 15.1% as of Tuesday\u2019s close\u2014gains that underscore how much bitcoin has lagged other risk assets during long stretches of 2025. That divergence, together with a growing body of ETF-flow data showing several straight sessions of net outflows from US spot bitcoin funds into early November, provided the macro backdrop for a fragile crypto tape. Independent tallies from Farside\/SoSoValue and multiple outlets point to a roughly $1.3\u2013$1.4 billion cumulative bleed over four trading days into November 3\u20134, led by BlackRock\u2019s IBIT.<\/p>\n
Into that context, Joe Consorti\u2014Head of Growth at Horizon (Theya, YC)\u2014argues<\/a> the selloff is less a loss of conviction than a structural handoff of supply. In a video analysis posted late November 4 US time, he framed the day\u2019s move as \u201cone of its roughest days of the year, down more than 6 percent, falling to $99,000 for the first time since June,\u201d adding that while equities would call that \u201cthe start of a bear market\u2026 for Bitcoin, though, this is typical of a bull market drawdown.\u201d He noted that \u201cwe\u2019ve already weathered two separate 30 percent drawdowns during this bull run,\u201d and characterized the present action as \u201ca transfer of Bitcoin\u2019s ownership base from the old guard to the new guard.\u201d<\/p>\n Consorti anchored his thesis to a now-viral framework from macro investor Jordi Visser: bitcoin\u2019s \u201csilent IPO.\u201d In Visser\u2019s Substack essay\u2014shared widely since the weekend\u2014he posits that 2025\u2019s rangebound price belies an orderly, IPO-like distribution as early-era holders access the deepest liquidity the asset has ever had through ETFs, institutional custodians and corporate balance sheets.<\/p>\n \u201cEarly-stage investors\u2026 need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify,\u201d Visser wrote, arguing that methodical selling \u201cresults [in] a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.\u201d Consorti adopted the frame bluntly: \u201cThis isn\u2019t panic selling, it\u2019s the natural evolution of an asset that\u2019s reached maturity\u2026 a transfer of ownership from concentrated hands to distributed ones.\u201d<\/p>\n Evidence for that churn has been visible on-chain. Multiple instances of Satoshi-era wallets<\/a> and miner addresses reanimating this quarter\u2014some after 14 years\u2014have been documented, including July\u2019s duo of 10,000-BTC wallets and late-October movement from a 4,000-BTC miner address. While not dispositive that coins are being market-sold, the pattern is consistent with supply redistributing from early concentrates to broader, regulated channels.<\/p>\n Technically, Consorti cast the drop as part of \u201cdigestion,\u201d not exhaustion. \u201cThe RSI tells us Bitcoin is at its most oversold level since April, when the last leg of the bull run began. Every drawdown this cycle, 30%, 35%, and now 20%, has built support rather than destroyed it.\u201d He added a key conditional: \u201cIf we spend too much time below $100,000, that could suggest the distribution isn\u2019t done\u2026 perhaps we\u2019re in for a bull-market reversal into a bear market.\u201d<\/p>\n Macro, however, is intruding. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on October 29 to a 3.75%\u20134.00% target range, but Chair Jerome Powell carefully pushed back on the idea of an automatic December cut, citing \u201cstrongly differing views\u201d inside the FOMC<\/a> and a \u201cdata fog\u201d from the ongoing government shutdown. Markets promptly tempered their odds for further near-term easing. Consorti\u2019s warning that bitcoin \u201cis extremely correlated\u201d to risk-asset drawdowns therefore looms large: if equities lurch meaningfully lower or funding stress reappears, crypto will feel it.<\/p>\n