last week\u2019s FOMC<\/a>, he noted, rate-cut odds tightened materially \u201cafter Powell mentioned a comment about the fog. Got to slow down on the fog, he says,\u201d with risk assets reacting poorly: \u201cEquities didn\u2019t like that\u2026 crypto certainly didn\u2019t like that.\u201d<\/p>\nHe also flagged the inflation now-casting mix as a swing factor. \u201cTrueflation [is] ticking higher consistently\u2026 you don\u2019t want to be in this position where we are cutting into rising inflation,\u201d he cautioned, while contrasting that with the Fed\u2019s nowcast, which \u201cdoesn\u2019t look as dire.\u201d<\/p>\n
A CPI headline beginning with a \u20183\u2019 would be problematic in his view: \u201cI suspect if we do get a three handle on headline CPI, markets aren\u2019t going to like that.\u201d Under the hood, he pointed to falling gasoline and used-car prints and easing rents as disinflationary, but called out sticky components like insurance.<\/p>\n
Liquidity optics remain mixed: the reverse repo facility has seen periodic end-month spikes yet is \u201crunning on fumes,\u201d and, crucially, the long-observed link between global liquidity gauges and BTC \u201chas not reconnected in any regard since May, June, July.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dollar strength is an additional pressure point. \u201cThe dollar continues to look good, continues to push higher\u2026 and this chart looks phenomenal\u2026 a real problem\u201d for Bitcoin if that uptrend persists, he said. In classic cross-asset contrast, he described the 60\/40 US bonds\/equity mix as technically constructive\u2014\u201cabove the cloud, bullish TK cross, bullish cloud\u201d\u2014and noted that risk proxies like high-yield credit are diverging from the S&P 500, which he reads as consistent with crypto\u2019s underperformance: \u201cWith BTC struggling, you see riskier parts of the market also pulling back to a greater degree than equities.\u201d<\/p>\n
Equities Need To Remain Strong<\/h2>\n
In equities, he argued there is \u201cnothing to short\u201d on the major indices right now\u2014\u201cSPY\u2026 looks great,\u201d with the Nasdaq and semis echoing the same message\u2014creating an awkward asymmetry for BTC: \u201cIf Bitcoin can\u2019t find its way when the SPY and the Q\u2019s look like this, we\u2019re certainly in trouble because if this does reverse, that\u2019s going to take BTC with it almost certainly.\u201d<\/p>\n
On crypto-equity linkages, Olszewicz observed that miners have outperformed for reasons outside of Bitcoin\u2019s fundamentals: \u201cIf you look at the Bitcoin miners, those have been bullish. Why? Because of AI and not because of Bitcoin\u2026 anybody following that story has done very well this year.\u201d He extended the caution to other high-beta tech themes\u2014quantum names \u201clook very tired\u2026 more and more like a head and shoulders\u201d\u2014while acknowledging individual standouts like Palantir, which he said is \u201cbreaking out of its own cup and handle,\u201d even if near-term price action was choppy after hours.<\/p>\n
The broader market psychology, in his view, is shaped by cycle age and wealth preservation. \u201cA thousand days from the bottom, more and more people are just saying, okay, this is enough\u2026 if they\u2019re rich, they want to stay that way\u2026 it makes some sense to take a little bit off the table.\u201d Until the technicals change, he sees no reason to force trades: \u201cHonestly, not much, probably just sit around and collect some cash. Wait for those A-plus setups to emerge.\u201d<\/p>\n
The trigger for a regime shift is unambiguous in his framework. As he put it at the outset, \u201cBelow the cloud we\u2019re bearish\u2026 not a bullish expectation.\u201d The condition for flipping that view is equally clear: \u201cBack above $115,000 on BTC and 4,200 on ETH,\u201d or, in this headline terms, reclaim the level\u2014or remain \u201cfully bearish.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $103,634.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin\u2019s technical structure remains decisively negative and will stay that way \u201cuntil\u201d a key resistance level is reclaimed, according to veteran analyst Josh Olszewicz in his latest video published today. Pointing to the Ichimoku Cloud and a stack of trend signals, Olszewicz said, \u201cBelow the cloud we\u2019re bearish, above we\u2019re bullish. We are currently below\u2026 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":110320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110319"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=110319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/110320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=110319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=110319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=110319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}