For the first time in more than a century, America is about to go dark on its inflation stat. With Bureau of Labor Statistics staff furloughed due to the shutdown, there will be no Consumer Price Index and no official measure of the cost of living, nor a baseline for the markets.<\/p>\n
What the hell? So the CPI report <\/a>under Trump will be just smoke and mirrors? This comes at a time when many are arguing that CPI is rigged in the US, like in Banana republics.<\/p>\n (Source: X<\/a>)<\/p>\n Anyone who pays household bills can see the cost inflation in real time, and it\u2019s much more than 3%.\u00a0 Economists and traders are now navigating blind, improvising where the world\u2019s most-watched inflation<\/a> gauge used to be.<\/p>\n DISCOVER:\u00a0<\/span>Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cvirtually NO INFLATION\u201d says the billionaire politician who hasn\u2019t had to shop at normal stores in decades. <\/p>\n Just like Biden was lying, Trump is lying. pic.twitter.com\/innsKZL1K2<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 An0maly (@LegendaryEnergy) October 6, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n We are currently observing a classic late-cycle policy error in real-time:<\/p>\n Interest Rates & The Fed:<\/strong> The Fed has begun cutting, bringing the target range to 4.00-4.25% as of September. They are cutting into a slowdown, terrified of the cracks forming in employment. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Meanwhile, for more than a century, the CPI has tracked every rise and fall<\/a> in the cost of living without interruption. That record ends this month. With government statisticians furloughed and no new data collected, this is adding more pressure to an already stressful US economic environment.<\/p>\n \u201cWithout timely inflation data, households can\u2019t budget, companies can\u2019t plan, and investors are essentially trading on fiction,\u201d said Jon Hill, head of U.S. inflation strategy at Barclays.<\/p>\n With no CPI data to anchor markets, two fallback systems have taken their place and they don\u2019t match. The US Treasury assumes inflation will continue at the past year\u2019s average pace.<\/p>\n The ISDA, which governs swaps, froze inflation at last October\u2019s level: 3.01%.<\/p>\n (Source: BLS<\/a>)<\/p>\n The result is a warped market. Barclays estimates that the split now implies a 3.05% breakeven rate for TIPS versus just 1.78% for inflation swaps, and this is a gulf wide enough to break models that once moved in sync.<\/p>\n For crypto traders, this is a rupture in one of the world\u2019s core pricing systems.<\/p>\n DISCOVER: Top 20 Crypto to Buy in 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n (Source: Polymarket<\/a>)<\/p>\n Prediction markets aren\u2019t optimistic. Polymarket contracts give less than a 30% chance that CPI data drops before November.<\/p>\n Without CPI, the Fed walks into its October meeting half-blind. Bond auctions risk distortion, and macro models could start spitting out false signals.<\/p>\n If the shutdown drags on, the divide between TIPS and swaps could widen further, twisting the yield curve and leaving economists guessing what\u2019s really going on.<\/p>\n EXPLORE: Is It All Over For the Bull Run? Rates Cuts Sink Crypto Markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n For the first time in more than a century, America is about to go dark on its inflation stat. With Bureau of Labor Statistics furloughed. <\/p>\n If the shutdown drags on, the divide between TIPS and swaps could widen further, twisting the yield curve. <\/p><\/div>\n The post US Inflation Stat Faces Chaos as Government Shutdown Freezes BLS Data<\/a> appeared first on 99Bitcoins<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" For the first time in more than a century, America is about to go dark on its inflation stat. With Bureau of Labor Statistics staff furloughed due to the shutdown, there will be no Consumer Price Index and no official measure of the cost of living, nor a baseline for the markets. What the hell? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-109368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109368"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=109368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=109368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=109368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=109368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}CPI Inflation Stat: Is The US F*cked?<\/h2>\n
\nInflation (The Sticky Tail):<\/strong> September CPI ticked up to 3.0% (headline and core). The \u201clast mile\u201d to 2% has failed. The Fed is easing while inflation is re-accelerating, a disaster scenario for bond real yields and equity valuations.
\nThe Yield Curve Signal:<\/strong> The 10Y-2Y spread is now positive (+0.54%). History shows the recession begins after the curve dis-inverts.<\/p>\nNow That CPI Is Gone, What\u2019s Next? The Problem with the \u201cFallbacks\u201d<\/h2>\n
How High Will Inflation Get in 2025? Traders Turn to Alternative Indicators<\/h2>\n
Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n