A widely shared seasonality snapshot is making the rounds ahead of month-end: a Coinglass heat map of Bitcoin\u2019s monthly returns, reposted by trader Daan Crypto Trades. The table spans 2013\u20132025 and shows November as the statistical outlier in Bitcoin\u2019s calendar\u2014both for eye-popping gains and for sharp drawdowns in certain years.<\/p>\n
\u201cNovember is Bitcoin\u2019s best month based on historical performance. By far,\u201d Daan wrote on X, pointing to an average November change of +46.02% across the dataset. That figure is visibly distorted by November 2013\u2019s +449.35% surge, the single largest monthly move on the board. He added: \u201cThe average gain over all these months is +46.02%. But this is heavily skewed by a single monthly gain in November 2013. Bitcoin went up +449.35%!! that month.\u201d<\/p>\n
The raw counts back up the reputation without the hyperbole. Out of the 12 Novembers listed (2013\u20132024), 8 finished green\u20142013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%)\u2014while 4 were negative\u20142018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).<\/p>\n
The median November change sits at +10.82%, a more conservative central tendency that dampens the 2013 effect. Excluding 2013 entirely, the simple average for November drops to roughly +9.35% across the remaining 11 years, underscoring how one month can skew mean-based seasonality.<\/p>\n
Context from the broader table matters. November\u2019s average is the highest of any month on Coinglass\u2019s grid, ahead of October\u2019s +20.30% average, while December shows a far more mixed profile with a +4.75% average but a -3.22% median\u2014an imbalance consistent with outlier-driven months.<\/p>\n
September, long maligned by traders, retains a negative average (-3.08%) over the full period. The 2024 row itself captures the push-and-pull of this cycle\u2019s narrative: double-digit gains in February, March, May, October, and November, offset by meaningful drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a negative December print to close the year (-2.85%).<\/p>\n
Daan\u2019s framing extends beyond simple seasonality. \u201cNovember & December is when the 2013, 2017 & 2021 cycles topped out. It\u2019s also where the 2018 & 2022 cycles bottomed out,\u201d he noted. That observation lines up with the historical inflection points most market participants remember: the late-2013 mania and subsequent crash, the December 2017 peak, the November 2021 all-time high<\/a>, and the December 2018 and November 2022 washouts.<\/p>\n The Coinglass grid cannot timestamp intramonth highs or lows, but the clustering of major pivots into the final two months of the year is consistent with the market\u2019s folklore and with the returns pattern that shows both exceptionally strong up months and some of the cycle\u2019s most punishing down months in this window.<\/p>\n