Veteran chartist Peter Brandt ignited a fresh technical debate on X after publishing two annotated charts\u2014one of today\u2019s Bitcoin daily bars, the other of Chicago Board of Trade soybeans from 1977\u2014arguing that the cryptocurrency may be carving out a broadening top akin to the historical commodity pattern that preceded a 50% collapse.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn 1977 Soybeans formed a broadening top and then declined 50% in value,\u201d Brandt wrote. \u201cBitcoin today is forming a similar pattern. A 50% decline in $BTC will put MSTR underwater. Whether I am right or wrong, you have to admit this old guy has the gonads to make big calls.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brandt\u2019s side-by-side comparative overlay is central to his thesis. The soybean chart marks an \u201cAscending Megaphone\u201d that resolved sharply lower, while his current Bitcoin chart shows an expanding range bounded by rising upper and lower trendlines with a highlighted \u201csell zone\u201d near the mid-range around $114,800. While the upper boundary sits just above $125,000, the lower trendline now tracks a descending band around $102,000\u2013$100,000.<\/p>\n
The BTC panel also includes short-term moving averages (8-period and 18-period) and a modestly elevated ADX reading, capturing a market that has been volatile within a widening corridor rather than trending cleanly. On Brandt\u2019s rendering, recent bounces have stalled beneath a horizontal resistance band, consistent with the \u201csell zone\u201d annotation.<\/p>\n
The post triggered immediate pushback from pattern specialists, most notably Francis Hunt (TheMarketSniper), who argued that the similarity is superficial because the direction of the megaphone matters. \u201cIf you have #HVFmethod you would notice whilst the broadening structures<\/a> look the same. The Soybeans was an Ascending Megaphone on a bull trend => Bearish. Bitcoin is a Descending structure on a bull trend, eventually => Bullish. Place a splitter between each for net gradient.\u201d<\/p>\n Brandt, who has a long record of public calls across FX, commodities, and crypto, framed his view as a live hypothesis rather than a certainty, adding an important nuance a few hours later: \u201cI am a Bayesian. I deal in possibilities, not probabilities and certainly not certainties. At any given time I have binary TA and macro narratives playing in my head \u2014 $250k<\/a> Bitcoin or $60k Bitcoin. I consider all possibilities and look for asymmetrical bets in either direction.\u201d<\/p>\n He also acknowledged the alternative read from Hunt: \u201cI\u2019ll be first to admit you could be right. I am willing to go with it in either direction. If BTC goes up I want to be long, if it goes down I want to be short.\u201d<\/p>\n