{"id":10673,"date":"2024-10-01T11:30:58","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T11:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=10673"},"modified":"2024-10-01T11:30:58","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T11:30:58","slug":"bitcoin-price-could-skyrocket-to-118000-by-year-end-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=10673","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Price Could Skyrocket To $118,000 By Year-End: Here\u2019s Why"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an analysis<\/a> shared on X, Kelly Greer, Vice President of Trading at Galaxy Digital, presents a compelling argument for why the Bitcoin price could surge to as high as $118,000 by the end of the year. Greer\u2019s insights are grounded in a combination of historical performance data, current market dynamics, and broader macroeconomic factors, all of which she believes are aligning to create a highly favorable environment for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Why Bitcoin Could Skyrocket To $118,000<\/h2>\n

Greer begins by highlighting Bitcoin\u2019s strong historical performance in the fourth quarter (Q4) of previous years. She pointed out that since 2020, Bitcoin\u2019s average Q4 return to its intra-quarter high watermark has been approximately 85%. This figure includes a best-case scenario where the return reached a staggering 230%, and a worst-case scenario with a 12% decline.<\/p>\n

\u201cBTC average Q4 return (to max [intra quarter high watermark, full q return]) since 2020 is +85% (worst -12%, best +230%)\u2014press you to find a stronger asymmetry,\u201d Greer writes. This statistical asymmetry suggests a significant potential upside compared to the downside, making Q4 historically a period of robust growth for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

A merely average Q4 with a price increase of 85% could mean a year-end price of $118,000 for Bitcoin. If the BTC outperforms its record of 230%, the price could even rise well above $200,000.<\/p>\n

Notably, Greer believes that the current market is not fully positioned to take advantage of this potential. She attributes this underallocation to a few key factors. Firstly, there is apprehension surrounding the upcoming US presidential election<\/a> scheduled for November 5. Secondly, other assets such as gold and China\u2019s A-shares are attracting significant attention and capital, potentially diverting investment away from Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

\u201cI still don\u2019t think the market is allocated accordingly\u20142024 is a unique case where some portion of the market is underindexing on the Q4 asymmetry due to a) Nov 5 US election risk and\/or b) other assets are screaming (gold, China A-shares etc.),\u201d Greer remarks.<\/p>\n

Key Reasons To Be Bullish On BTC<\/h2>\n

To support her assessment of the market\u2019s current positioning, Greer cites her interactions with risk managers and noted specific market indicators. She mentioned observing \u201clow volatility and contained perp funding,\u201d which suggests that traders are not aggressively betting on significant price movements.<\/p>\n

Beyond these market dynamics, Greer identifies several macroeconomic and industry-specific factors that she believes are creating a \u201cbroadly very positive\u201d backdrop for Bitcoin. One significant point is the presence of global stimulus measures<\/a> in major economies such as the United States and China, excluding Japan.<\/p>\n

Greer also highlights that BNY Mellon, the world\u2019s largest custodian bank, received a SAB 121 exemption<\/a>. This exemption allows the bank to offer custody services for Bitcoin without the stringent capital requirements that previously made such services less attractive. Greer describes this development as \u201cmassive and underappreciated,\u201d noting that it will \u201cloosen financing in our industry substantially.\u201d<\/p>\n

Furthermore, Greer points out that ETF flows have become \u201cvery constructive.\u201d Over the past few days, spot BTC inflows have reaccelerated<\/a> massively. Last Friday, net flows were $494.8 million, making it the highest net inflow day of the quarter and the highest net inflow day since June 4th.<\/p>\n

Another positive indicator is that Bitcoin miners are entering agreements with hyperscalers\u2014large-scale cloud service providers. These partnerships can enhance mining efficiency and reduce operational costs.<\/p>\n

Greer also mentions that \u201csupply overhangs [are] mostly done,\u201d suggesting that large sell-offs that could suppress the price are unlikely in the near term. Additionally, she anticipates that \u201cdemand from FTX cash distros [is] around the corner,\u201d implying that funds distributed from the FTX exchange<\/a> could find their way into Bitcoin investments, further boosting demand.<\/p>\n

However, Greer also acknowledges potential risks that could impact Bitcoin\u2019s trajectory. These include signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and the possibility of a pullback in equity markets. Such events could introduce volatility or dampen investor enthusiasm.<\/p>\n

However, she believes that the overall sentiment remains positive. \u201cThere are risks of course\u2014Fed signaling, equities pullback, what have you\u2014but net net vibes are quite good, and flows are just getting started,\u201d she remarks.<\/p>\n

Greer also describes Bitcoin as a \u201creflexive asset.\u201d She explains, \u201cBTC is the ultimate reflexive asset: price -> flows -> price.\u201d This means that as the price of Bitcoin increases, it attracts more investment flows, which in turn push the price even higher\u2014a self-reinforcing cycle.<\/p>\n

Greer notes that Bitcoin is entering Q4 after breaking a key price level at $65,000. If the price were to reclaim the $70,000 mark, she expects that the inflows would accelerate as investors respond to the positive momentum and recall the strong Q4 performances of previous years.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $63,947.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In an analysis shared on X, Kelly Greer, Vice President of Trading at Galaxy Digital, presents a compelling argument for why the Bitcoin price could surge to as high as $118,000 by the end of the year. Greer\u2019s insights are grounded in a combination of historical performance data, current market dynamics, and broader macroeconomic factors, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10673"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10673\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}