Bitcoin\u2019s violent futures deleveraging earlier this month reset market positioning but did not break the broader bull trend, according to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast on October 20, Moreno argued that the path to fresh highs remains open if spot demand stabilizes and the macro overhang from US\u2013China tariff negotiations clears. The key inflection he\u2019s watching is Bitcoin reclaiming its on-chain traders\u2019 realized price near $115,000. \u201cThe resistance will be around $115K,\u201d he said. \u201cIf the price goes above that\u2026 the range that we could expect is $150\u2013$195K. To the downside\u2026 it\u2019s around like $100K.\u201d<\/p>\n
Moreno characterized<\/a> the October 10 deleveraging as the largest dollar liquidation in the history<\/a> of Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals, with roughly $20 billion in open interest wiped out in a single day as total OI fell from an all-time high near $78 billion to around $58 billion, later hovering closer to $56 billion. He noted that in unit terms the event was \u201ca little bit short of the FTX liquidations,\u201d but emphasized that the dollar magnitude reflected today\u2019s larger derivatives base, not a structural break.<\/p>\n The relative resilience of spot price\u2014Bitcoin \u201conly got to\u2026 $110,000\u201d that day, after a wick to \u201c103,000\u201d two days prior\u2014underscored, in his view, that demand and the cycle\u2019s price floor sit well above prior cycles even amid forced unwinds. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t put you in a bearish market,\u201d Moreno said, adding that buyers still absorbed supply quickly enough to avert a trend break.<\/p>\n CryptoQuant\u2019s composite \u201cbull score\u201d of ten on-chain indicators had already rolled over before the crash, dropping from roughly 80 to 40 by October 6 as momentum cooled and spot demand began to contract. After the liquidation, the score slid toward 20, which Moreno described as \u201con the bearish side right now.\u201d He stressed that on-chain metrics are not price predictors so much as risk gauges: \u201cIt\u2019s going to signal to you the risks\u2026 when all these metrics\u2026 converge into telling you there\u2019s increasing risks, then it\u2019s when you have to be more careful.\u201d<\/p>\n Several datapoints pointed to a market that was stretched into the shock. Total crypto open interest set a record near $78 billion just before the event, a classic over-leverage tell. Profit-taking surged above $3 billion in early October as spot neared the prior all-time high in the $124K\u2013$126K zone, fitting CryptoQuant\u2019s \u201cprofit\u2013pause\u2013push\u201d framework in which aggressive realization precedes cooling.<\/p>\n Moreno also highlighted that spot demand flipped from growth to contraction around October 6\u2014days before tariff headlines and the liquidation\u2014helping explain why the risk backdrop was deteriorating even without the macro spark. \u201cWe were starting to see some high profit taking\u2026 not only because of the macro events,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The compositional flow of coins during the drawdown supports the view of a rotation rather than a structural buyer strike. Moreno said \u201cOG\u201d whales<\/a> and early miners\u2014an aggregate cohort he estimates hold roughly 600,000 BTC excluding Satoshi\u2014resumed distribution as prices pushed past $100K, a recurring dynamic in every cycle as supply migrates to new hands. Institutional demand, by contrast, remained steady.<\/p>\nWho\u2019s Selling, Who\u2019s Buying Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n