Ostium Labs\u2019 Market Outlook #55 argues that Bitcoin\u2019s higher-timeframe bull structure survived last week\u2019s volatility and now points \u201cback to the highs,\u201d provided spot holds above $107,000. \u201cWhilst we trade above $107k, I think the next move is back to the highs, with $112k likely to act as local support,\u201d the note states, adding that the firm still expects price to trade into \u201cthat confluence of overhead resistance at $133k by month-end.\u201d<\/p>\n
The team frames last week\u2019s deleveraging as the \u201cgreat reset<\/a>,\u201d contending that the largest liquidation event in crypto history removed excess leverage without breaking weekly structure. On the weekly chart, no major support was lost and the wick down to roughly $107,000 was reclaimed into a $115,000 close, which Ostium reads as confirmation that momentum remains bullish on higher timeframes. Invalidation is precise: \u201cA weekly close below last week\u2019s low is now the obvious invalidation\u2026 close through $107k\u2026 and we have a more pressing concern, where we undoubtedly then trade into $99k.\u201d<\/p>\n On the daily, Ostium notes a classic sweep-and-reversal sequence. Price twice tagged the prior range high near $126.3k, failed to hold above $123.8k, and then \u201ccollapsed,\u201d ultimately wicking into the 200-day moving average\u2014an area the desk had flagged as a likely terminal level for any early-October capitulation.<\/p>\n The view from here is unambiguous: \u201cAnyone expecting sub-$100k will remain sidelined for a long time\u2014if you didn\u2019t get it on the largest liquidation event in crypto history, I don\u2019t think you\u2019re getting it until we enter a bear market<\/a>.\u201d Tactical invalidation on this timeframe is a daily close below the 200-DMA, which would put the 360-DMA near $100,000 in play and constitute Ostium\u2019s \u201cline in the sand for a full-blown flip into bear market territory.\u201d<\/p>\n Path dependency matters for the upside call. Ostium expects prior highs around $112,000 to act as support and form a higher low, with \u201cacceptance back above ~$116k\u201d setting a rotation to the top of the range at $123.8k and then \u201cprice discovery beyond that.\u201d The desk\u2019s near-term timing is surprisingly punchy: \u201cGun to my head I think we trade $125k by early next week and $133k by month-end.\u201d<\/p>\n For traders, the preferred long setup is early-week weakness into $110k\u2013$112k to establish a higher low, using a daily close below $107k (hard stop $105k) as risk, and targeting at least $121k with scope for much higher. A counter-trend short, by contrast, would require a grind up into the $121k confluence, a rejection and daily close back below $118k, and then a fade into the $110k\u2013$112k zone\u2014only if the higher-low hasn\u2019t already formed.<\/p>\n Positioning evidence, in Ostium\u2019s view, buttresses the reset-then-extend thesis. The firm highlights obliterated open interest, Binance Net Longs back to \u201cLiberation Day\u201d lows, compressed three-month annualized basis, and fresh liquidation maps for one-week and one-month horizons\u2014all consistent with a cleaner tape for trend continuation.<\/p>\n