{"id":10341,"date":"2024-09-30T08:30:14","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T08:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=10341"},"modified":"2024-09-30T08:30:14","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T08:30:14","slug":"record-september-gives-bitcoin-82-odds-for-an-ultra-bullish-q4-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=10341","title":{"rendered":"Record September Gives Bitcoin 82% Odds For An Ultra Bullish Q4: Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) posits a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024. Leveraging historical data, Astronomer provides an analysis<\/a> via X, suggesting an 82% probability of an ultra bullish trend based on the performance of Bitcoin in September.<\/p>\n

The crypto analyst opens his analysis with an emphasis on the unexpected positive performance of Bitcoin in September. \u201cSeptember is about to close and to the general public\u2019s surprise, it\u2019s looking like it\u2019s going to be green (by a long shot), with the chance of setting the greenest September in 2024, supporting our breakout thesis we have been on for a while now,\u201d he writes.<\/p>\n

Delving into the sentiment of the market<\/a>, Astronomer notes a significant disconnect between public perception and actual market positions. \u201cAnd although we\u2019re not the only ones anymore that are on the full bull thesis, data is and remains data. And after thorough inspection, despite the talking\/analysis posts, most are not positioned yet, took profit too early or will cheer for dips and say they are a gift for the reason of wanting one,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

He further elaborates on the sentiment within closed circles: \u201cThis observation is not just coming from public posts or Twitter, but also from the array of paid groups partaken in to conduct these analyses. Not allowed to share names or details, but most groups indeed are long and took profit early, are looking for an entry, or are short. So the market\u2019s hand seems to be working.\u201d<\/p>\n

82% Chance Bitcoin Will Be Bullish<\/h2>\n

Astronomer\u2019s bullish thesis leans on historical data, particularly the cyclical nature of the Bitcoin price. \u201cThe data analysis is fairly simple here: each time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months after, i.e., a green October, November, and December. And this has happened 3\/3 times since BTC inception,\u201d he asserts, signifying a strong seasonal pattern.<\/p>\n

However, he is quick to temper this with a critique of his methodology, admitting to the potential pitfalls of low data samples: \u201cNow like I said, I am not the biggest fan of seasonality<\/a> and our analysis only has 3 data points, which gives us only a 67% confidence to make the claim that the next three months will indeed be green (low data fallacy). But to add significance, by the binary nature of bullish\/bearish, there is also exclusivity to the data: if September is not green, 6 out of 8 times, Q4 has not been green each month.\u201d<\/p>\n

He refines his thesis further, \u201cSo, by including the exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret claim, using more data points is that: \u2018The direction of September has determined the general direction of Q4 and if September is green and not red, a bullish (not bearish) Q4 has followed 9 out of 11 times. So if September closes above $59k, there is an 82% chance Q4 will be bullish\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

The prediction stirred dialogue within the community. A user @pieceofsheet99 commented skeptically, suggesting the potential for an unexpected downturn: \u201cIf September turned out to be green to everyone\u2019s surprise, October can also turn out to be red to everyone\u2019s surprise as well.\u201d Astronomer responded, reaffirming his reliance on historical trends, \u201cIndeed, but that\u2019s not what we have seen typically. So, I personally, as always, stick to the data.\u201d<\/p>\n

Astronomer\u2019s analysis concludes on a note of strategic optimism, emphasizing the importance of aligning with market dynamics and historical patterns rather than speculative impulses. \u201cHow bullish<\/a>? We will see (time is more important than price), but it\u2019s not about planning for retirement and making fast money. It\u2019s about being on the right side of the trade, time after time after time, enjoying the market stress-free and not having too many regrets through losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process). And this way, eventually (rather soon), you hit your goals.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $64,622.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) posits a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024. Leveraging historical data, Astronomer provides an analysis via X, suggesting an 82% probability of an ultra bullish trend based on the performance of Bitcoin in September. The crypto analyst opens his analysis with an emphasis on the unexpected […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10341"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10341"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10341\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}