According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before the month ends. He posted that likelihood on X and backed it with simulation work that uses a decade of price moves to map likely outcomes.<\/p>\n
Peterson said the model runs hundreds of simulations using daily Bitcoin<\/a> prices going back to 2015. Based on those runs, he put the chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.<\/p>\n He also gave a 43% probability that the price will end the month below $136k. At the time he spoke, Bitcoin was trading at $121,200. That means a rise of about 11% would be needed to reach $140,000 from the current level.<\/p>\n Half of Bitcoin\u2019s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation. \u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n Bitcoin set a fresh all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin began October<\/a> at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced gains.<\/p>\n According to data, October has been the second-best month on average since 2013, with typical gains of 20%. Reports have disclosed that November is the strongest month historically, averaging 46% gains since 2013.<\/p>\n Peterson described his forecast as driven by data rather than human emotion. He said each projection follows price changes that mirror Bitcoin\u2019s past volatility and rhythm.<\/p>\n That approach aims to remove bias from short-term sentiment. Still, there are limits to what historical simulations can show.<\/p>\n Bitcoin has sometimes moved in ways that did not match past patterns. Market reactions, policy moves, and other forces can push prices off the script that history suggests.<\/p>\n Market Sentiment Remains Bullish<\/p>\n Other analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the recent high. One analyst said the market was retesting prior highs and could move higher.<\/p>\n Another wrote that pressure was building for further gains. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by traders and funds.<\/p>\n Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate.<\/p>\n If you can\u2019t beat it, you have to buy it.<\/p>\n I explained on @SquawkCNBC<\/a> this morning why so many investors are not producing the returns they think they are. pic.twitter.com\/re98rjCDua<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Anthony Pompliano (@APompliano) October 7, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Macro Notes From A Prominent Investor<\/p>\n Reports have also carried comments from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin\u2019s rally can continue if governments and central banks keep printing money.<\/p>\n JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin will never stop going up.<\/p>\n \u201cThey will never stop printing money.\u201d pic.twitter.com\/qeWJnTsIb3<\/a><\/p>\n
\nThere is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
\nBut there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com\/LPhFr0mry9<\/a><\/p>\nNo Human Emotion<\/h2>\n