Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin can double into year-end\u2014and he says the catalyst is a White House blueprint to capture the levers of US monetary policy. In an appearance on The Rollup, the BitMEX co-founder sketched a path to $250,000 per coin predicated on what he calls a \u201csecret weapon\u201d: a rapid consolidation of control over the Federal Reserve (Fed) that would clear the way for aggressive credit creation, yield-curve engineering, and an eventual flood of fiat liquidity into digital assets.<\/p>\n
Hayes\u2019 $250,000 year-end Bitcoin call rests on a narrow but explosive thesis: Donald Trump can seize functional control of the Federal Reserve within months, trigger yield-curve control by executive-pressure and personnel power, and unleash a credit impulse that spills straight into crypto via stablecoins. The BitMEX co-founder framed the pathway not as conjecture but as institutional mechanics. \u201cIt just is math. I love math,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
At the center is the Fed\u2019s architecture\u2014two bodies, two vote thresholds, one choke point. Hayes recited the plumbing crisply. \u201cThere\u2019s a Fed Board of Governors. There\u2019s seven members on this board. All are presidential appointees confirmed by the Senate and simple majority wins. So you need four votes out of seven to control that board.\u201d<\/p>\n
With that majority, the White House gains three levers at once: the interest rate paid on reserve balances and terms at the discount window; supervisory stance over bank regulation; and decisive influence over who runs the 12 regional Reserve Banks\u2014because those presidents must be approved by the governors.<\/p>\n
The second body, the FOMC, has 12 votes; seven governors and five district presidents. Stack sympathetic leaders at the districts and the tally follows. \u201cBy having four in the governors and seven of the FOMC you\u2019re effectively controlling the central bank,\u201d Hayes argued.<\/p>\n
Why, then, is Governor Lisa Cook<\/a> \u201cthe final domino\u201d? Hayes ties the timing to Stephen Miran\u2019s recent dissent on rate policy among sitting governors. He contends Trump already has two aligned votes and a plausible third; Cook is the hinge for a fourth.<\/p>\n In his formulation, mounting legal and political pressure could force her departure on a compressed calendar. \u201cI think it\u2019s before the end of the year,\u201d he said, describing an \u201cimminent\u201d court determination related to a mortgage- or bank-fraud matter and the likelihood of a negotiated exit irrespective of guilt or innocence:<\/p>\n