With the dawn of October, sentiments surrounding Bitcoin appear to be improving. Interestingly, Bitcoin\u2019s historical price behavior continues to show patterns consistent with the so-called \u201cfour-year cycle,\u201d according to analysis by The DeFi Report.<\/p>\n
The platform revealed that it is confident that BTC will peak again in Q4.<\/p>\n
Current-cycle data indicates the market is in a \u201clate stage\u201d of expansion. The DeFi Report measured<\/a> from Bitcoin\u2019s November 2022 price trough, and found that 1,044 days have elapsed, which is comparable to the 1,063-day 2021 expansion and the 1,065-day 2017 cycle.<\/p>\n Realized profits for BTC investors have reached $857 billion, which is 65% higher than in the 2021 cycle, while normalized to market cap, profit creation aligns closely with previous cycles.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Coin Days Destroyed, a measure of how long coins are held before spending, has already exceeded the 2021 cycle by 15%, which points to active profit-taking. Long-term holder supply too mirrored past behavior as a distribution phase occurred in Q4 2024 through Q1 2025, followed by a rebound, which means that coins moved into new money entering the market.<\/p>\n To top that, the market has continued to experience institutional participation and market maturation as Bitcoin dominance has not yet fallen to the 40% levels seen in prior cycles.<\/p>\n Technical indicators further add context to these trends. The 200-week moving average is currently sitting at $53.1k. It has previously signaled bottoms and prior cycle highs, pointing to diminishing returns for upward moves this year. Realized price, a proxy for cost basis, sits at $53.8k, which also validated this trend.<\/p>\n The MVRV-Z score is 2.28, already above comparable points in 2021. Previous instances have shown that a move toward a score of 3 could correspond to Bitcoin reaching $160k-$170k. This means that the crypto asset has significant potential upside if the cycle continues.<\/p>\n While no law requires Bitcoin to follow the four-year cycle, the report stated that the convergence of behavioral, mechanical, and macroeconomic factors suggests<\/a> a Q4 peak is likely. Narrative anchoring, liquidity alignment, halving mechanics, innovation bursts, and volatility expectations together support this scenario, which makes the four-year cycle a durable framework.<\/p>\n The post Bitcoin (BTC) Could Surge to $170K in Q4: Report<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" With the dawn of October, sentiments surrounding Bitcoin appear to be improving. Interestingly, Bitcoin\u2019s historical price behavior continues to show patterns consistent with the so-called \u201cfour-year cycle,\u201d according to analysis by The DeFi Report. The platform revealed that it is confident that BTC will peak again in Q4. Four-Year Cycle Strikes Again Current-cycle data indicates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":102256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102255"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=102255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102255\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/102256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=102255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=102255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=102255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Realized Price & MVRV-Z Score<\/h2>\n