Many months before publishing this article, I came across a post by @Arthur Hayes on his X account that caught my attention. Since I consider him intelligent, even if he isn\u2019t always right, I decided to review the entire Twitter thread to understand the logic behind his statement.<\/p>\n
On the post published on April 4th, he believes that Bitcoin and gold prices will increase in the mid-term thanks to tariffs that are scaring investors in the US, while the dollar index will lose strength as it is going to happen with the most influential fiat currencies due to quantitative easing.<\/p>\n
Arthur Hayes\u00a0tweet<\/a><\/p>\n Honestly, this is what many have been expecting because the FED has followed the same formula after the 2008 crisis. Inflating the money supply has been the only magic method they have applied to prevent a disaster.<\/p>\n However, even if we all know that this isn\u2019t preventing a system collapse but postponing it until we finally fall under a global inflation or stagflation, we are expectant or looking for that \u201csafe\u00a0haven\u201d.<\/p>\n For many, it has been a gold role because it has performed during inflationary times. For some others like us, tech-driven people, the question was whether an injection of liquidity into the market would boost Bitcoin\u2019s value.<\/p>\n So, when and why might this\u00a0happen?<\/p>\n This is why this article aims to explain a potential Bitcoin scenario amid the tariffs imposed on April\u00a02nd.<\/p>\n This is apparently the plan that the Trump administration has had since the beginning of its mandate. Donald Trump has always been hostile to China due to the threat that it represents for American hegemony in terms of international business.<\/p>\n For this reason, the Trump administration needs to weaken the dollar to increase exports before China takes the absolute lead in every aspect of the economy, as it has been doing over the last\u00a0years.<\/p>\n Created by: BlockNumberZero. Find the data source here: https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NOxg7\/2\/<\/a><\/p>\n The macroeconomic events of April confirmed this theory since the global market has been reacting after new tariff rates were published by the USA, especially in\u00a0Europe.<\/p>\n Main European Markets indicators (4th April, 2025). Source: Google\u00a0Finance<\/p>\n The European Union, which responded to the new policies with negotiations and finally arrived at an agreement on a lower tariff than the initial one proposed by the Trump administration.<\/p>\n However, the results of these negotiations are two. Some tariffs were changed, and others were put on\u00a0hold.<\/p>\n Back in April, I believed that not only investors but also international companies would hesitate to sell or do business with the US, which would weaken the dollar usage even more, especially in economies that are implementing other currencies for their international transactions. Even if that hasn\u2019t been happening, but all the opposite, my theory is still ongoing since it is a long-term macroeconomic game.<\/p>\n U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter 2025. Source: https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/intl-trade-investment\/international-transactions<\/a><\/p>\n Just to add an example of how bad things are turning, we can turn our attention to inflation in different categories like food and services, which is impoverishing consumer purchasing, and it tends to reflect in the long\u00a0term.<\/p>\n Inflation rate for all items except food and energy, August 2025. Source: https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/11\/inflation-breakdown-for-august-2025.html<\/a>Inflation rate for food items, August 2025. Source: https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/11\/inflation-breakdown-for-august-2025.html<\/a><\/p>\n Topics like unemployment and AI have been popping up during the last months, which has brought hope to the markets but also meant job cuts in different sectors. This isn\u2019t currently reflected in the market, which has been unstoppable.<\/p>\n S&P500 Chart October 2025. Source: https:\/\/www.finanzen.net\/index\/s&p_500<\/a><\/p>\n Something similar in terms of currency weakening could happen to the Yuan, whose value loss could incentivize Asian investors to look for assets like Bitcoin or\u00a0gold.<\/p>\n This may set the American economy into trouble since its economy could slow down and few companies would feel confident to invest, opening possibilities to an economic collapse. However, it could be at this moment when aggressive rate cuts may arrive to save the American economy, and additionally, a QE program could motivate companies to take loans and reinvest in their operations.<\/p>\n As we know, QE could significantly push up Bitcoin\u2019s price since this trend has been perfectly aligned for many\u00a0years.<\/p>\n Bitcoin and M2 Growth Global Chart. Source:https:\/\/charts.bgeometrics.com\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n Market slowdowns and money-easing relationships have existed long before Bitcoin\u2019s creation. Governments around the world have used these strategies to prevent collapses like the one that happened during 2008\u20132010. I would say this is why Bitcoin was\u00a0created.<\/p>\n Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n Even if short-term results could play differently than expected, long-term consequences for the economy are based on the logic of the money supply and the reasons why liquidity goes to markets that move faster and with fewer restrictions.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udee1\ufe0fBitcoin: A Safe Haven Amidst Tariffs?<\/a> was originally published in Coinmonks<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Many months before publishing this article, I came across a post by @Arthur Hayes on his X account that caught my attention. Since I consider him intelligent, even if he isn\u2019t always right, I decided to review the entire Twitter thread to understand the logic behind his statement. On the post published on April 4th, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101923"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=101923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101923\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=101923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=101923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=101923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Tariffs\ud83d\udcc8\u2192 Rate\u2702\ufe0fs & QE \u2192 Bitcoin\ud83d\udcc8?<\/strong><\/h3>\n